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SPC May 16, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected
to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into
southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of
tornadoes are also possible.

...Central TX to southern LA through tonight...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side
of a composite outflow boundary.  Rich low-level moisture (100 mb
mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9
C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present
south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for
organized clusters/supercells.  Thus, some upscale growth and
increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the
afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the
moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. 
Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing
segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with
supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s).  A
couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations
and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite
outflow boundary.  One or more clusters/bowing segments could
persist into tonight across southern LA.

Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary
shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX.  Given the
ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection
this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will
likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward.  Wind
profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large
hail.

...Elsewhere...
No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL
areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL.

..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024

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