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Mesoscale Discussion 0854
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...southeast Wyoming...southwest

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 202047Z - 202315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Initially high-based convection within the Front Range
into southeast Wyoming will eventually spread east and intensify.
Primary hazards will be severe wind gusts and large/very-large hail.
A mesoscale corridor with greater tornado risk will in northeast
Colorado and vicinity within the moisture axis. A watch will
eventually be needed this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to develop along the Front Range
as upslope flow continues this afternoon. A weak thunderstorm has
formed recently south of Denver in drier air. The exact timing of
storm greater initiation/intensification is a bit unclear, but the
approach of the mid-level ascent from the Four Corners region should
foster additional development within the next 2-3 hours or so.
Further, the lee trough to the east should also deepen and pull
richer surface moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F, as observed in
upstream in Kansas) into northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska.
The current thinking is that storms will initiate within the Front
Range as well as southeast Wyoming. Storms will initially be
high-based and primarily capable of severe wind gusts and large
hail. Storm intensification can be expected as they encounter richer
moisture to the east. A greater tornado threat will exist with
supercells moving within the moisture axis in northeast Colorado and
nearby vicinity. Here, backed surface winds will combine with an
eventual modest increase in easterly 850 mb winds to increase
low-level hodograph curvature. Very-large hail will also become more
probable as supercell storms intensify farther east.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39750224 39500376 40130466 41140504 41630438 41680241
            41230173 40350176 39750224 

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