Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted May 22 Administrators Share Posted May 22 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.