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SPC May 22, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central
Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe
weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts
of central Texas to central Arkansas.  A few tornadoes are also
possible.

...Southeast OK/AR/TN...
A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from
southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. 
These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms
forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. 
Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a
continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Central/East TX...
The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this
update cycle.  A very moist surface air mass is present today over
central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s.  Multiple subtle
southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this
afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from
northwest into west-central TX.  Strong deep-layer shear and fast
westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.  As this activity tracks
southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of
corridors of damaging wind gusts.

...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY...
Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today
over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front
moving across the OH Valley.  Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime
heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield
afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg.  Model guidance is in
agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across
the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging
winds and some hail in the strongest cells.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024

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