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MD 0909 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF MAINE
MD 0909 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0909
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Areas affected...Much of Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 231603Z - 231800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
increase this afternoon across as a line of storms moves across
Maine. Overall severe coverage remain uncertain, but convective
trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery reveals some scattered
deepening cumulus across northern ME, beneath the high clouds
spreading northeastward into the region. Thus far, these clouds
remain fairly flat, but are indicative of airmass destabilization.
This is occurring downstream of a line of convection over northern
NH/far northwest ME. Expectation is that this line will continue
eastward while the moist and buoyant downstream airmass continues to
destabilize. This will likely support an increase in thunderstorm
coverage and intensity within this line as it moves eastward across
ME this afternoon. 

Surface temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s with
dewpoints in the low 60s, helping to support moderate buoyancy
around 1500 J/kg. Moderate westerly flow aloft already in place is
expected to persist, and this combination of buoyancy and shear will
likely support an organized convective line with occasionally strong
updrafts. These storms coupled with steep low-level lapse rates
could result in damaging gusts. Some hail is also possible within
the stronger cores. Convective trends will be monitored for possible
watch issuance.

..Mosier/Hart.. 05/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   45146843 44696888 44226957 43997014 43877053 44017071
            44587082 45197054 46566963 46716859 46146809 45146843 

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