Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted May 28 Administrators Share Posted May 28 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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