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SPC May 28, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail
(in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple
convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest
Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas
later this afternoon into tonight.

...TX/southwest LA through tonight...
A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an
initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection)
surging southeastward from north central into east TX.  This MCS has
a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along
the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. 
The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints
and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg.  Deep-layer vertical shear is
strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the
extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a
continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce
additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon
(possibly including the Houston metro area).

Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus
additional storm development this afternoon into west central and
central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to
storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and
Trans-Pecos.  Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in
excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into
clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow
winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight.

...Elsewhere...
A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress
southeastward toward IL by this evening.  Ascent preceding the
midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level
moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally
severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from
southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN.  Farther west, a midlevel
trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep
baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies.  Moisture will
be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could
produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this
afternoon/evening.

..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024

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