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SPC May 30, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z


Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size,
damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected
this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other
isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well
as the central Plains to Upper Midwest.

...Southern Plains...
Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern
Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing
complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated
severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along
outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the
region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across
south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull,
storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across
the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related
damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional
severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75
inches in diameter.

Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread
southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe
storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad
north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle
southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the
aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely
be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm
development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and
Big Country.

Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse
rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells
with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the
aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The
southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential
to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a
couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of
somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual
outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is
expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail
continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress
generally southeastward into central/north Texas.

...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska...
Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning
in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding
the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk
later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in
cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization
for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within
multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are
expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be
relatively weak.

..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024

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