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SPC May 30, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE.

...SUMMARY...
One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning
into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing
across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi
Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening.
Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a
threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are
possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a
tornado or two.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the
Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad
mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a
convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving
across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be
present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and
could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two.

...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast...
Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of
morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency
synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to
develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However,
there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from
here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is
expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain
intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary
stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau
northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and
strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and
severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery
can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning
convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into
southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1
convective evolution becomes more clear.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley...
A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas
through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models
which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be
favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could
support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly
where some heating can occur.

...Central High Plains...
Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm
development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms
will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across
the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots
effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will
support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and
damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and
right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth
into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as
storms move east.

..Bentley.. 05/30/2024

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