Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted May 30 Administrators Share Posted May 30 MD 1081 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA Mesoscale Discussion 1081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado and western into northern Nebraska and far southern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301927Z - 302100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated severe hail/wind gusts may accompany the stronger thunderstorms across portions of the central Plains as storm coverage increases into the afternoon. Given likely low severe coverage a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a diffuse cold front that is meandering across northeast Colorado into eastern South Dakota. Storm coverage will increase through the afternoon since deep-layer ascent will increase as a mid-level trough grazes the central Plains to the north. Given the northward passage of the mid-level trough and associated stronger flow aloft, the more favorable deep-layer shear will lag the cold front, so the thunderstorms ahead of the front are not expected to become organized on a widespread basis (precluding a WW issuance at this time). However, 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading low 60s F surface dewpoints will yield up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots, suggesting that at least isolated instances of severe wind or hail may accompany the stronger storms. 19Z mesoanalysis also shows strong low-level vertical vorticity coinciding with over 125 J/kg of CAPE in the 0-3 km layer. As such, conditional potential exists for a landspout if a strong updraft can anchor to the cold front. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 39410348 41460085 43619890 44559781 44069755 43219788 42039863 40999938 40310071 39110268 39060333 39410348 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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