Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted May 31 Administrators Share Posted May 31 SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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