SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend
through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop
over northern portions of the West through early next week as an
upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak
atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the
Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across
the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To
the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to
spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next
week. 

Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge
building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the
eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal
are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from
the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley.
Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a
cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week,
which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain
West, especially the Southwest late next week. 

...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas...
West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of
5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West
this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the
Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much
of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are
tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile.
BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in
much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing
the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at
this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend
Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in
portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of
an approaching cold front.

...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West...
Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central
Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid
to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy
conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above
normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas
in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that
could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current
forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north
into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the
possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual
Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of
thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West.
However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include
probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. 

...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida...
Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central
and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the
potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally
critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in
the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for
portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally
elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze
thunderstorms.

..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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