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SPC Jun 2, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook


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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the
Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the
northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming
increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low
associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central
Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the
triple point. This low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border
intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI
while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper
and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in
place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy
across the Upper MS Valley, despite limited heating. Slightly
greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast
NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime
heating is possible. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the
approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and
buoyancy, with some isolated severe possible.

Farther south, very moist airmass will remain over the southern
Plains, with 70s dewpoints in place across much of TX and OK. Strong
heating is anticipated, particularly across west TX where
temperatures over 100 are possible. A sharp dryline is expected from
far western OK into southwest TX, where there is a low chance for
isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon.
However, the overall severe probability is currently too low to
delineate any area with this outlook.

One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible
across the eastern CONUS, most likely over the OH Valley and
Southeast states. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and
ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass
destabilizes. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low.

..Mosier.. 06/02/2024

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