Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 2 Administrators Share Posted June 2 SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley, despite limited heating. Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy, with some isolated severe possible. Farther south, very moist airmass will remain over the southern Plains, with 70s dewpoints in place across much of TX and OK. Strong heating is anticipated, particularly across west TX where temperatures over 100 are possible. A sharp dryline is expected from far western OK into southwest TX, where there is a low chance for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. However, the overall severe probability is currently too low to delineate any area with this outlook. One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, most likely over the OH Valley and Southeast states. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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