Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 2 Administrators Share Posted June 2 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early D4/Wednesday before a shortwave trough moves quickly southeastward through its base and the cyclone shifts into the Upper Great Lakes region. Only slow eastward progression of this cyclone from the Great Lakes into the Northeast is anticipated on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. A cold front associated with this system will likely push eastward across the OH and TN Valleys on D4/Wednesday, with another frontal surge possible across these areas on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of these fronts, although uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as buoyancy limits predictability. Farther southwest, upper ridging is expected to build over the western CONUS on D4/Wednesday through D6/Friday, with northwesterly flow persisting across the Plains. Low-level moisture will be limited across the central Plains on D4/Wednesday but some moisture return is possible D5/Friday, which could promote thunderstorm development. Uncertainty regarding this moisture return and resultant buoyancy results in low forecast confidence. Upper pattern predicted for the medium-range guidance diverges notably after D5/Friday, although none of the guidance predicts any substantial shortwave troughs. As a result, the severe potential each day will likely depend strongly on mesoscale factors, which are difficult to forecast at this range. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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