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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Valid 021700Z - 031200Z

The ongoing forecast is largely on track. The only change was to
expand the elevated area to the southwest where elevated fire
weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon.
Please see the previous forecast discussion below for additional
meteorological reasoning.

Elsewhere, elevated-to-critical meteorological fire-weather
conditions are expected across portions of east and northeast New
Mexico. However, recent rains should limit fuel receptiveness,
precluding the need for elevated or critical delineation.

..Marsh.. 06/02/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024/

Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the
western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four
Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over
the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this
afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather

...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX...
Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of
the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four
Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster
southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph
gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX.
Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will
continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With
another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather
conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions
are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few
hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are
likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent
rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any
critical conditions brief and confined.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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