Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 2 Administrators Share Posted June 2 MD 1125 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 1125 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...the southern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021658Z - 021900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon along and near a remnant outflow boundary. Large hail (some very large), severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible. DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from the ongoing convection near the Red River continues south across the southern Texas Panhandle but is starting to slow. A very moist airmass is in place across this region, even north of the outflow boundary. SPC mesoanalysis suggests inhibition has eroded across the region and some convection has already started to form on the eastern periphery of this outflow boundary south of Childress. Given the significant moisture, strong instability, and uncapped airmass thunderstorms may continue to develop along this outflow boundary which could prompt a watch relatively soon. However, it is also possible that more widespread/robust convection may not occur until later this afternoon as the dryline advances east and the mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor across New Mexico, overspreads the Panhandle. Any storms which develop will likely be supercellular given 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. The extreme instability and steep lapse rates will support large hail up to the size of baseballs. In addition, a localized tornado threat may occur near/the outflow boundary where low-level SRH will be maximized. A watch will eventually be needed across this region with timing as the primary uncertainty at this time. Will monitor trends with ongoing convection along the outflow boundary with watch issuance likely once a severe threat (greater than isolated) appears imminent. ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33919960 33459930 32819918 32500020 32730188 33330273 33840283 34340300 35230313 35650289 35800199 35230079 34650013 33919960 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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