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MD 1129 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
MD 1129 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming...northeastern
Colorado...western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 021932Z - 022030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms developing over the southeastern Wyoming vicinity
should gradually increase/expand eastward/southeastward over the
next couple of hours -- likely requiring WW issuance by 02/21z.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows convection
slowly increasing across the southeastern Wyoming, with growing TCU
southward to the Palmer Divide.  This increase is occurring as
ascent associated with weak short-wave troughing moving across
Wyoming overspreads the area.  Recently, a stronger storm has
initiated over Banner County in the Nebraska Panhandle, and -- while
capping remains in place farther east -- this storm may note the
initial stages of the anticipated afternoon/evening severe-weather
event over western Nebraska and adjacent northwestern Kansas.

Above the aforementioned capping inversion over western Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas, steep lapse rates are contributing to 2000 to
3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.  As stronger mid-level westerly flow --
associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough -- spreads
eastward across the central High Plains, the overall environment
will increasingly support potential for severe/supercell storms. 
Along with potential for very large hail, strong/damaging wind gusts
are also expected locally -- aided by sub-cloud evaporation within
the rather deeply mixed boundary layer.

..Goss/Smith.. 06/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41000526 41490484 42460226 43200098 43049934 42239929
            40019946 39530177 39870481 41000526 

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