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Mesoscale Discussion 1128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...The TX/OK Panhandles into West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 021928Z - 022100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be issued by 2030Z for the
OK/TX Panhandles into portions of West Texas.

DISCUSSION...An earlier outflow boundary has now stalled near
Lubbock with an expanding cu field in the vicinity of the boundary.
High-based cumulus has started to form across eastern New Mexico and
southeast Colorado, indicating the increased ascent ahead of the
approaching mid-level shortwave trough. In addition, the dryline has
started to mix east and is now located near the TX/NM border. The
combination of these factors indicate that robust thunderstorm
development is likely in the next 1 to 2 hours. Effective shear
around 35 knots and MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg (per SPC
mesoanalysis) will support supercells capable of hail up to baseball
sized. Very high moisture content, the outflow boundary, and backed
flow in the recovered outflow airmass all support some tornado
threat with any well-established supercells. Therefore, a tornado
watch will likely be needed by 2030Z.

..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32520031 32510091 32460220 32580298 34380306 36180315
            36880295 36990206 36990071 36920066 35610032 33949986
            32879989 32520031 

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