Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 2 Administrators Share Posted June 2 MD 1127 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA Mesoscale Discussion 1127 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota into far northern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021901Z - 022130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across portions of North Dakota this afternoon. A few stronger storms will be accompanied by marginal hail/wind risk, but at this time WW issuance appears likely to remain unnecessary. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows convection developing southward across south-central North Dakota, south of an initial, strong storm now crossing Eddy County. Meanwhile, some increase in cumulus development is evident southwestward into northwestern South Dakota, along a weak cool front. Mixed-layer CAPE currently ranges from around 500 J/kg (northeastern North Dakota) to 1500 to 2000 J/kg southwestward into northwestern South Dakota. This -- combined with modest shear (moderate/roughly unidirectional southwesterly flow in the lower and middle troposphere) suggests a few stronger multicell-type storms can be expected this afternoon, potentially clustering into a larger MCS this evening as storms shift eastward toward Minnesota. Overall severe risk should remain limited however, potentially precluding the need for WW issuance. ..Goss/Smith.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 46540170 46850076 47659983 48199877 48279816 47689747 46919738 46039798 45670028 45870197 46540170 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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