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Mesoscale Discussion 1140
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...East Texas...Central and Northern Louisiana...Far
Southwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373...380...381...

Valid 030046Z - 030245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373, 380,
381 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to maintained across much of
east Texas over the next few hours. Wind damage and hail will be the
primary threats. The severe threat is expected to impact far
southwest Arkansas and northern/western Louisiana later this
evening, where a watch or extension may be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a linear MCS
ongoing across northeast Texas, with a warm advection wing of storms
extending southeastward into the Sabine River Valley. The airmass
ahead of the linear MCS is strongly unstable, with surface dewpoints
in the mid 70s F, and the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500
J/kg range. The severe threat will likely be maintained with the
stronger cells embedded the MCS over the next few hours. The latest
WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots with strong
speed shear in the mid-levels. In addition, mid-level flow appears
to be maximized behind the MCS, as evident on RAP analysis. This
should help continue a wind-damage threat along the leading edge of
the MCS, as it moves southeastward at about 30 knots. The line of
strong to severe storms will likely impact southwest Arkansas and
western/northern Louisiana later this evening, where new watch
issuance or an extension is possible.

..Broyles.. 06/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32599635 32269739 31909753 31509724 31119643 30669501
            30579348 31259250 32079205 32979218 33809366 33879462
            33559487 32889551 32599635 

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