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SPC Jun 3, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across much of the
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley this evening and into the early
overnight hours. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, severe
gusts of 60-80 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected.

...01z Update...
Despite a highly complex convective scenario, the forecast remains
largely on track. Some minor modifications to the outlook area have
been addressed below.

...Central Plains...
A pronounced bowing MCS has formed over portions of central and
southern NE as expected. This feature should track eastward into the
Enhanced area with a risk for damaging gusts (some significant) hail
and a couple of tornadoes. The ENhanced area was expanded to the
east and southeast to better align with the expected path of the
bowing line.

...East/Southeast TX into LA and southern AR...
The ongoing MCS over portions of eastern TX should continue
southeastward this evening along a subtle baroclinic boundary with
access to moderate buoyancy and effective shear over a fairly wide
stretch of LA and southern MS. Several other clusters of storms have
developed along trailing outflow and should result in additional
upscale growth with time. However, confidence in the evolution of
this system and the eastern extent of the severe risk is low. Given
the potential for damaging winds a tornado or two and some hail to
continue, have extended the Slight farther eastward to the LA/MS
border and southern AR.

...The Dakotas into the upper Midwest...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to persist into this
evening near a weak surface low across central SD. While so far
these storms are fairly well separated, CAM guidance and radar
trends suggest this convection should grow upscale into one or more
linear clusters with time this evening. Damaging winds, hail and a
tornado or two are possible as storms spread east/southeast toward
IA/MN and far northwest WI tonight. Have adjusted the eastern edge
of the severe probabilities to better reflect the latest trends in
guidance.

..Lyons.. 06/03/2024

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