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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0407 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

Broadly zonal mid-level flow, with a belt of enhanced westerlies
over the US-Canadian border, will continue across the West and
northern Plains through the first part of the week. Thereafter the
pattern is forecast to amplify considerably, with a large-scale
ridge developing over the western US, and a large-scale trough
developing over the East. This result will be excessive heat for
many locations across the West and long burning periods (relative
humidity less than 20%), especially across the Intermountain West.
The lack of mid-level flow should preclude strong, gusty winds at
the surface. However, given the forecast magnitude of the ridge,
hot/dry conditions are likely to cure fuels resulting in elevated
fire weather concerns, despite relatively weak surface winds.

By late in the week/early next weekend, a cutoff mid-level low will
impinge upon the southern portions of the western ridge. The
mid-level low will increase mid-level flow and the associated
increase in moisture/ascent should be sufficient for thunderstorm
development, including dry thunderstorms. Confidence on the
timing/evolution of the cutoff low is poor, thus unconditional dry
thunderstorm probabilities have not been introduce, but will likely
be needed at some point.

..Marsh.. 06/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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