Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 3 Administrators Share Posted June 3 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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