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SPC Jun 3, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z


Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the
Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today.
A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become
focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into
early tonight.

...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight...
As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great
Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few
different clusters.  The most substantial of these has been an MCS
with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning
across southwest KS.  This MCS has weakened more recently, but some
form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through
the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up
to 3000 J/kg.  Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is
low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially
reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and
perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before
the storms weaken.

Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely
provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon
along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. 
Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg
with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating.  At
least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this
afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to
the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will
subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary.  Despite
rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the
low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to
sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. 
The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some
enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the
potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very
large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts.  These
evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection,
will be possible tonight across southern and central OK.

...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this
afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential
heating zone.  As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud
breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector
from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI.  Despite some
localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV,
deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily
supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). 
Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing
occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in
diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening.

..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024

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