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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Valid 041700Z - 051200Z


The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance
consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas.
Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially
constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH,
precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though
localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the
western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the
30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are
expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though
overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized
wildfire-spread potential.

..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/

A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as
mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the
ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift
northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert
Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold
front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the
higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should
increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker
surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear
unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy
conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over
parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of
this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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