Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 5 Administrators Share Posted June 5 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula. Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and limiting storm organization. ...Southeast into the Southern Plains... Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit severe potential. ...Florida Peninsula... Sea-breeze convergence is forecast to result in thunderstorms across central and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Moderate buoyancy, supported in part by relatively cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -8 to -9 deg C at 500 mb), could support a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Highest severe coverage is anticipated from the east-central into southeast FL Peninsula. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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