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SPC Jun 5, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z


Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the
Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well
over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula.
Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the
east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula.

A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern
Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into
the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period,
upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern
Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced
westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features,
extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a
low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before
then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern
Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into
central TX. 

Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain
progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic
coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the
region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor
mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help
support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along
and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be
displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and
limiting storm organization.

...Southeast into the Southern Plains...
Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less
progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the
Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA
into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a
more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with
some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of
this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger
storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit
severe potential.

...Florida Peninsula...
Sea-breeze convergence is forecast to result in thunderstorms across
central and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon.
Moderate buoyancy, supported in part by relatively cold mid-level
temperatures (i.e. around -8 to -9 deg C at 500 mb), could support a
few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Highest
severe coverage is anticipated from the east-central into southeast
FL Peninsula.

..Mosier.. 06/05/2024

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