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MD 1174 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
MD 1174 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1174
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Areas affected...Much of Maine and southern New Hampshire

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051654Z - 051900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop
across parts of ME and southern NH.  A few strong/severe storms are
possible with gusty winds and hail.  A WW is not currently
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing cu/tcu
across western ME and southern NH.  This area has warmed into the
70s and lower 80s, with dewpoints in the mid 60s yielding SBCAPE
values of 1000-1500 J/kg.  Relatively steep low-level lapse rates
and sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft will aid in the
development of a few organized cells this afternoon capable of
locally gusty winds.  Cold temperatures aloft and moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates may also encourage the risk of hail in the
strongest cells.  It appears that the overall coverage of
strong/severe storms will be limited.  Thus, a WW is not currently
anticipated.

..Hart/Smith.. 06/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...

LAT...LON   42807103 43037170 43717163 44677089 45906979 46296853
            46016746 45146724 44346776 43996855 43127028 42807103 

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