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SPC Jun 5, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST
OK...PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible
on Thursday across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the
Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle
into southwest Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
A deep-layer cyclone centered over Ontario is forecast to move
southeastward on Thursday, with a belt of northwesterly
mid/upper-level flow extending west and south of the cyclone from
the Great Lakes into parts of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front
attendant to the cyclone will move across parts of New England into
the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. The trailing cold
front will extend westward into parts of the southern Plains.

...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and
evening along/ahead of the cold front from parts of the Mid Atlantic
into the Northeast, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. 

For northern portions of the region across parts of central/eastern
NY and vicinity, MLCAPE may remain relatively modest (generally
500-1000 J/kg), but moderate deep-layer flow/shear and ascent
attendant to the approaching upper-level trough will support some
storm organization. Multicell clusters and a couple of transient
supercells will be possible. Locally damaging winds appear to be the
most likely hazard at this time, though at least small hail will
also be possible. Some threat could spread into parts of southern
New England before storm intensity diminishes during the evening. 

Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the Mid
Atlantic and North Carolina. However, relatively stronger
heating/destabilization and somewhat enhanced low-level
southwesterly flow could support a few stronger clusters with
isolated damaging-wind potential from afternoon into the early
evening.  

...Parts of central/south FL...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
central and southern FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon, with the
typical sea-breeze-related convection potentially aided by a weak
mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the Southeast. Deep-layer
shear will generally be rather weak, but relatively cool
temperatures aloft and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a
few strong to locally severe storms capable of isolated hail and
damaging gusts. 

...Parts of southwest OK into the TX Panhandle vicinity...
The western portion of the cold front will likely become nearly
stationary from southern parts of the TX Panhandle into southwest OK
Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will support moderate
destabilization near the front, with at least isolated storm
development possible by late afternoon into early evening. While
deep-layer flow will generally be rather weak, northerly midlevel
flow may provide sufficient effective shear for modest storm
organization, including the potential for hail and localized severe
gusts.

..Dean.. 06/05/2024

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