Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 5 Administrators Share Posted June 5 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK...PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone centered over Ontario is forecast to move southeastward on Thursday, with a belt of northwesterly mid/upper-level flow extending west and south of the cyclone from the Great Lakes into parts of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move across parts of New England into the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. The trailing cold front will extend westward into parts of the southern Plains. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. For northern portions of the region across parts of central/eastern NY and vicinity, MLCAPE may remain relatively modest (generally 500-1000 J/kg), but moderate deep-layer flow/shear and ascent attendant to the approaching upper-level trough will support some storm organization. Multicell clusters and a couple of transient supercells will be possible. Locally damaging winds appear to be the most likely hazard at this time, though at least small hail will also be possible. Some threat could spread into parts of southern New England before storm intensity diminishes during the evening. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the Mid Atlantic and North Carolina. However, relatively stronger heating/destabilization and somewhat enhanced low-level southwesterly flow could support a few stronger clusters with isolated damaging-wind potential from afternoon into the early evening. ...Parts of central/south FL... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon, with the typical sea-breeze-related convection potentially aided by a weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the Southeast. Deep-layer shear will generally be rather weak, but relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a few strong to locally severe storms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of southwest OK into the TX Panhandle vicinity... The western portion of the cold front will likely become nearly stationary from southern parts of the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will support moderate destabilization near the front, with at least isolated storm development possible by late afternoon into early evening. While deep-layer flow will generally be rather weak, northerly midlevel flow may provide sufficient effective shear for modest storm organization, including the potential for hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/05/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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