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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z


The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below
for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the
Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the
overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some
localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday
afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ.

..Barnes.. 06/05/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/

An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as
northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern
CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will
continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the
southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and
increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear
limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning
ignitions from high-based storms.

...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms...
As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and
far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into
the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft
appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced
north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to
support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to
northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary
layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any
storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for
wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential
appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM
and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for
ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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