Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 6 Administrators Share Posted June 6 MD 1186 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN CT/MA AND SOUTHWEST VT Mesoscale Discussion 1186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern NY into western CT/MA and southwest VT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062201Z - 062330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado could spread eastward into this evening. DISCUSSION...A band of convection is currently moving across eastern NY, with a rather prominent mesolow noted northwest of Albany. The immediate downstream environment remains rather moist and modestly unstable (MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range), with sufficient deep-layer shear to support some storm organization. Generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates have generally limited the severe threat thus far. However, surface winds remain backed along/east of a surface trough/weak front, and 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 is noted both from objective mesoanalyses and the VWP from KENX. Given the relatively moist boundary layer and somewhat favorable low-level shear, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent circulation embedded within the larger storm cluster. Otherwise, isolated damaging winds remain possible, both with any stronger bowing segment that can be maintained, and also in the vicinity of the mesolow where rather strong velocities are noted from KENX. ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 41037391 41567382 42507396 42827450 42927463 43857450 44027328 43557314 42267292 41387301 41177336 41127383 41037391 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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