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SPC Jun 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z


Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible
on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in
northern parts of the Intermountain West.

...Southern Plains and Central High Plains...
An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday,
as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An
associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to
near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop
in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward
into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during
the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak,
steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong
wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of
west Texas.

Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central
Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher
terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward
into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early
evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of
instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that
lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong
enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will
be the primary threats.

...Snake River Valley...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific
Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt
Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of
maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho,
where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by
afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected
to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho.
Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in
the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for
marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and
early evening.

..Broyles.. 06/08/2024

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