Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 8 Administrators Posted June 8 SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More isolated storms could develop further south near the instability axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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