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SPC Jun 8, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z


Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts
of the High Plains.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to
move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast
Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is
forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the
central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early
evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday
have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level
lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal
severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and
a few strong wind gusts are expected.

...Southern High Plains...
A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the
southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a
moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of
the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE
into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential
for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be
near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More
isolated storms could develop further south near the instability
axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near
Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb
lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with
rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening.
Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential
for severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 06/08/2024

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