Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 8 Administrators Share Posted June 8 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Over the last few runs, medium-range model forecasts have become in much better agreement during the mid-week. A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as another trough moves eastward across the southern Plains. The models suggest that there will be potential for strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. This potential for strong thunderstorms moves eastward into the Ark-La-Tex on Wednesday. A more appreciable severe threat could develop in parts of the eastern Dakotas and upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward through the region. A 15 percent contour has been added from western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota southward into north-central Nebraska, where model consensus suggests the environment will be most favorable for severe storms during the late afternoon and early evening on Wednesday. Uncertainty related to the most favorable area for severe weather increases on Thursday. The ECMWF suggests that the greatest threat will be in the upper Mississippi Valley. Other solutions suggest the potential threat area could be further southwest into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The plan is to give the models a few more runs before adding a 15 percent contour, so that confidence can be higher concerning the severe threat positioning. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern U.S. A moist and unstable airmass may be located beneath the ridge across much of the Great Plains and Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each day, mostly concentrated near outflow boundaries and in areas that heat up the most. The details concerning these factors remains very uncertain at this extended range. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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