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SPC Jun 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
Over the last few runs, medium-range model forecasts have become in
much better agreement during the mid-week. A shortwave trough is
forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as
another trough moves eastward across the southern Plains. The models
suggest that there will be potential for strong thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. This potential for
strong thunderstorms moves eastward into the Ark-La-Tex on
Wednesday. A more appreciable severe threat could develop in parts
of the eastern Dakotas and upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as
a mid-level jet translates eastward through the region. A 15 percent
contour has been added from western Minnesota and eastern North
Dakota southward into north-central Nebraska, where model consensus
suggests the environment will be most favorable for severe storms
during the late afternoon and early evening on Wednesday.

Uncertainty related to the most favorable area for severe weather
increases on Thursday. The ECMWF suggests that the greatest threat
will be in the upper Mississippi Valley. Other solutions suggest the
potential threat area could be further southwest into the lower to
mid Missouri Valley. The plan is to give the models a few more runs
before adding a 15 percent contour, so that confidence can be higher
concerning the severe threat positioning.

...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move
eastward across the central and northern U.S. A moist and unstable
airmass may be located beneath the ridge across much of the Great
Plains and Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be
possible each day, mostly concentrated near outflow boundaries and
in areas that heat up the most. The details concerning these factors
remains very uncertain at this extended range.

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