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Mesoscale Discussion 1222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southwestern NC...northwestern SC...and
far northeast GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092349Z - 100145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail are
possible through around 02Z. A watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms is evolving along the leading edge
of antecedent outflow over western NC as of 2340Z, though
organization has been limited thus far. As these storms continue
east-southeastward through around 02Z, there is some potential for
the development of a loosely organized cluster (and perhaps
transient supercell structures), given a warm/moist pre-convective
boundary layer and around 40-50 kt of unidirectional effective
shear. However, poor midlevel lapse rates (contributing to a
weak/skinny buoyancy profile), limited large-scale ascent, and
time-of-day may tend to limit overall intensity/organization of
storms. Nevertheless, locally damaging gusts (45-60 mph) and
marginally severe hail (to near 1 inch) cannot be ruled out.
Additional strong/loosely organized cellular development is also
possible trailing southwestward into far northeastern GA, with a
localized risk for strong gusts and marginally severe hail.
Currently, the severe threat appears too localized and marginal for
a watch, though convective trends will be monitored.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 06/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   35338029 35578066 35688112 35678147 35458196 35278254
            35068346 34968389 34748406 34508405 34318369 34288337
            34338284 34218241 33928163 33878089 34258034 34638013
            34988006 35338029 

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