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MD 1221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OR INTO SOUTHWEST ID AND EXTREME NORTHERN NV
MD 1221 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Areas affected...Southeast OR into southwest ID and extreme northern
NV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092328Z - 100130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and severe gusts are possible into early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast OR
and vicinity, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the
Pacific Northwest. MLCAPE of up to 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer
shear are supporting occasionally organized storm structures, with a
couple of stronger cells noted across Malheur County, Oregon. Those
cells will eventually encounter stronger MLCINH to the northeast,
but isolated hail and severe gusts will remain possible in the short
term. Other less-organized convection is ongoing farther west into
south-central OR, and also moving out of far northern NV. A stronger
cell or two could develop across those areas as well, but even the
ongoing less-organized convection could pose a threat of isolated
strong to severe gusts, especially where the environment remains
rather warm and well mixed.

..Dean/Bunting.. 06/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV...MFR...

LAT...LON   41641905 41901981 42172057 42612086 43252035 43541891
            43971710 43851605 43151585 41951536 41731709 41631876
            41641905 

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