Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 25 Administrators Share Posted July 25 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak upper trough will migrate across the Midwest early in the forecast period. However, weak deep-layer flow and relatively modest large-scale ascent may limit severe potential. Generally low-amplitude upper troughing will then prevail across the eastern third of the CONUS through much of the work week. Meanwhile, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Rockies/High Plains vicinity will persist for much of the Day 4-8 period. Some severe potential is possible in a northwesterly flow regime over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valley around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, but this risk would largely be driven by mesoscale factors not well resolved at longer time periods. Late in the period, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough may develop eastward atop the upper ridge in the vicinity of the northern Plains. This break down of the upper ridge amid a very moist and unstable boundary layer would be a favorable pattern for potential MCS development around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time, but may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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