SPC Jul 26, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across the northern
Plains, Great Basin, and parts of the Southwest.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A prominent upper-level trough will continue eastward today over the
northern Canadian Prairies, with peripheral height falls and a
strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft across the Dakotas and
northern Minnesota. This will largely overlie an eastward-shifting
front, that will be oriented northeast-southwestward across eastern
North Dakota and roughly bisect South Dakota by late afternoon.

Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air,
which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern
Great Plains through the day, a seasonably moist boundary layer will
support a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy across the Red River
Valley vicinity by late afternoon, where forcing for ascent should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by
early evening. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer
shear, a couple of supercells appear possible to the south of the
international border, especially across northwest Minnesota, and
perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and
Fargo.

Additional severe storms may also develop near/behind the front
across western/central South Dakota and far eastern Wyoming into
western Nebraska.

...Arizona...
Cloud cover and outflows will abate across central/southern Arizona
early today after a couple of relatively active thunderstorm days.
This will be as the upper ridge over the Southwest further weakens
and shifts southward. While thunderstorms are expected to
develop/increase over the Rim this afternoon, and modestly stronger
north-northeasterly steering flow may remain across far southeast
Arizona, a less-active scenario seems likely as far as storms
reaching the desert floor. While some strong/severe-caliber winds
could occur, any such potential should remain relatively localized
with a diminished overall severe risk from prior days.

...Great Basin...
In the wake of a shortwave trough, storm coverage/intensity are not
expected to be as active as Thursday, but moderate diurnal
destabilization is expected especially across western/northern Utah,
with isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development expected
this afternoon. A few of these storms could produce
strong/severe-caliber downbursts. A secondary round, and perhaps
somewhat greater coverage of storms, may occur tonight across Nevada
into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward transition of
the mid-level shortwave trough over northern California.

..Guyer/Grams.. 07/26/2024

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