NorthGeorgiaWX

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through a trough across the western/central US will bring chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US today. Much of the western, central, and southern US has had precipitation over the last 7-14 days, which has left fuels moist and not receptive to fire spread. Given the forecast cool and moist conditions (along with snow pack remaining across the northern US), wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 24 at 8:23AM EST until January 26 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 24 at 8:21AM EST until January 25 at 5:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms may occur today from South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region. The best chance for a tornado or two, and a few severe-caliber wind gusts, appears to be across southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region... Widespread convection is ongoing this morning from South Texas to Mississippi, in the vicinity of a cold front that extends across this region. While an outflow-reinforced push of the front has moved into the northwestern Gulf, the otherwise slow-moving front should become nearly quasi-stationary with time, as a short-wave trough ejects northeastward across the southern Plains through the period. With the front off the Upper Texas Coast, and sliding slowly southward across Deep South Texas, surface-based severe threat has diminished across this area. Later in the period, nearer the ejecting upper trough, additional/later thunderstorm development is expected across portions of the Edwards Plateau and into parts of South Texas. But, with these storms largely expected to be elevated atop a post-frontal stable boundary layer, marginal hail would be the primary severe risk with a couple of the strongest storms. Farther east, ahead of the front, dewpoints are generally in the mid 60s across southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with low-level theta-e advection ongoing across the warm sector. Given the low-level southeasterly flow field veering/increasing with height, shear is sufficient for updraft rotation -- and potentially a tornado or two along with gusty/damaging wind potential. Greatest risk is apparent this morning and into the afternoon, across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity. However, with cloud cover and abundant precipitation expected to persist across this area as the front moves only very slowly eastward at best, weak lapse rates -- and correspondingly limited CAPE -- should limit overall risk. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #86. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/24/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms may occur today from South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region. The best chance for a tornado or two, and a few severe-caliber wind gusts, appears to be across southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region... Widespread convection is ongoing this morning from South Texas to Mississippi, in the vicinity of a cold front that extends across this region. While an outflow-reinforced push of the front has moved into the northwestern Gulf, the otherwise slow-moving front should become nearly quasi-stationary with time, as a short-wave trough ejects northeastward across the southern Plains through the period. With the front off the Upper Texas Coast, and sliding slowly southward across Deep South Texas, surface-based severe threat has diminished across this area. Later in the period, nearer the ejecting upper trough, additional/later thunderstorm development is expected across portions of the Edwards Plateau and into parts of South Texas. But, with these storms largely expected to be elevated atop a post-frontal stable boundary layer, marginal hail would be the primary severe risk with a couple of the strongest storms. Farther east, ahead of the front, dewpoints are generally in the mid 60s across southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with low-level theta-e advection ongoing across the warm sector. Given the low-level southeasterly flow field veering/increasing with height, shear is sufficient for updraft rotation -- and potentially a tornado or two along with gusty/damaging wind potential. Greatest risk is apparent this morning and into the afternoon, across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity. However, with cloud cover and abundant precipitation expected to persist across this area as the front moves only very slowly eastward at best, weak lapse rates -- and correspondingly limited CAPE -- should limit overall risk. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #86. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/24/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms may occur today from South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region. The best chance for a tornado or two, and a few severe-caliber wind gusts, appears to be across southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region... Widespread convection is ongoing this morning from South Texas to Mississippi, in the vicinity of a cold front that extends across this region. While an outflow-reinforced push of the front has moved into the northwestern Gulf, the otherwise slow-moving front should become nearly quasi-stationary with time, as a short-wave trough ejects northeastward across the southern Plains through the period. With the front off the Upper Texas Coast, and sliding slowly southward across Deep South Texas, surface-based severe threat has diminished across this area. Later in the period, nearer the ejecting upper trough, additional/later thunderstorm development is expected across portions of the Edwards Plateau and into parts of South Texas. But, with these storms largely expected to be elevated atop a post-frontal stable boundary layer, marginal hail would be the primary severe risk with a couple of the strongest storms. Farther east, ahead of the front, dewpoints are generally in the mid 60s across southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with low-level theta-e advection ongoing across the warm sector. Given the low-level southeasterly flow field veering/increasing with height, shear is sufficient for updraft rotation -- and potentially a tornado or two along with gusty/damaging wind potential. Greatest risk is apparent this morning and into the afternoon, across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity. However, with cloud cover and abundant precipitation expected to persist across this area as the front moves only very slowly eastward at best, weak lapse rates -- and correspondingly limited CAPE -- should limit overall risk. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #86. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/24/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms may occur today from South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region. The best chance for a tornado or two, and a few severe-caliber wind gusts, appears to be across southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region... Widespread convection is ongoing this morning from South Texas to Mississippi, in the vicinity of a cold front that extends across this region. While an outflow-reinforced push of the front has moved into the northwestern Gulf, the otherwise slow-moving front should become nearly quasi-stationary with time, as a short-wave trough ejects northeastward across the southern Plains through the period. With the front off the Upper Texas Coast, and sliding slowly southward across Deep South Texas, surface-based severe threat has diminished across this area. Later in the period, nearer the ejecting upper trough, additional/later thunderstorm development is expected across portions of the Edwards Plateau and into parts of South Texas. But, with these storms largely expected to be elevated atop a post-frontal stable boundary layer, marginal hail would be the primary severe risk with a couple of the strongest storms. Farther east, ahead of the front, dewpoints are generally in the mid 60s across southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with low-level theta-e advection ongoing across the warm sector. Given the low-level southeasterly flow field veering/increasing with height, shear is sufficient for updraft rotation -- and potentially a tornado or two along with gusty/damaging wind potential. Greatest risk is apparent this morning and into the afternoon, across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity. However, with cloud cover and abundant precipitation expected to persist across this area as the front moves only very slowly eastward at best, weak lapse rates -- and correspondingly limited CAPE -- should limit overall risk. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #86. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/24/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0086 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHWEST MS Mesoscale Discussion 0086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Areas affected...Central/Southeast LA...Southwest MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241255Z - 241500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are possible for the next few hours across central and southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery shows a convective line from central MS southwestward into southwest LA. This line is moving slowly eastward, while cells within the line move quickly to the northeast. Line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer vertical shear has resulted in a largely anafrontal/undercut storm character and limited severe potential thus far. This trend is expected to continue, particularly with the northern extent of the line across central and southwest MS where low-level stability and related convective inhibition exist. Farther south (across central and eastern LA), ample low-level moisture has resulted in limited convective inhibition, but poor lapse rates are limiting buoyancy as well. Even so, a few stronger updrafts are possible as the line pushes eastward, particularly if favorable storm interactions/cell mergers occur. Primary severe threat is isolated, water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts. Veering low-level winds also support a low-probability potential for a brief tornado with any warm sector updrafts that can deepen and mature. ..Mosier/Goss.. 01/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29699282 30489212 31609079 31658995 31158949 29699052 29369121 29699282 Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 24 at 7:47AM EST by NWSView the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough currently off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to deepen across the southern Plains on Friday before migrating into the Southeast D4/Saturday. This feature will introduce severe thunderstorm chances across AL and GA, and possibly into parts of TN and the Carolinas. Longwave ridging will gradually build across the western CONUS in the wake of the shortwave trough this weekend into early next week. Broad height rises, combined with an influx of cooler continental air east of the Rockies, should limit severe thunderstorm potential for next week. ...D4/Saturday - Alabama/Georgia... Despite displaying disagreement for earlier periods, long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime for this weekend. A surface low emerging out of the lower MS River Valley early Saturday should deepen as it migrates into the southern/central Appalachians by late Saturday/early Sunday. In response to the deepening cyclone, low-level wind fields are forecast to strengthen ahead of a trailing surface trough/cold front as a 50-60 knot mid-level jet overspreads the Southeast. Forecast soundings from within the warm sector suggests 0-1 km SRH may be on the order of 100-250 m2/s2 with effective bulk shear values near 50 knots. Long-range ensemble guidance show reasonably high probability for warm sector dewpoints between 60-65 F from southern AL into western GA. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit buoyancy magnitudes, but deterministic and ensemble consensus is that SBCAPE should range between 250-500 J/kg owing to the favorable low-level moisture. Questions remain regarding the evolution of early-morning convection and storm mode, which could modulate the severe threat; however, the overall synoptic pattern and parameter space suggest that a low-CAPE/high-shear severe threat should materialize across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough currently off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to deepen across the southern Plains on Friday before migrating into the Southeast D4/Saturday. This feature will introduce severe thunderstorm chances across AL and GA, and possibly into parts of TN and the Carolinas. Longwave ridging will gradually build across the western CONUS in the wake of the shortwave trough this weekend into early next week. Broad height rises, combined with an influx of cooler continental air east of the Rockies, should limit severe thunderstorm potential for next week. ...D4/Saturday - Alabama/Georgia... Despite displaying disagreement for earlier periods, long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime for this weekend. A surface low emerging out of the lower MS River Valley early Saturday should deepen as it migrates into the southern/central Appalachians by late Saturday/early Sunday. In response to the deepening cyclone, low-level wind fields are forecast to strengthen ahead of a trailing surface trough/cold front as a 50-60 knot mid-level jet overspreads the Southeast. Forecast soundings from within the warm sector suggests 0-1 km SRH may be on the order of 100-250 m2/s2 with effective bulk shear values near 50 knots. Long-range ensemble guidance show reasonably high probability for warm sector dewpoints between 60-65 F from southern AL into western GA. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit buoyancy magnitudes, but deterministic and ensemble consensus is that SBCAPE should range between 250-500 J/kg owing to the favorable low-level moisture. Questions remain regarding the evolution of early-morning convection and storm mode, which could modulate the severe threat; however, the overall synoptic pattern and parameter space suggest that a low-CAPE/high-shear severe threat should materialize across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough currently off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to deepen across the southern Plains on Friday before migrating into the Southeast D4/Saturday. This feature will introduce severe thunderstorm chances across AL and GA, and possibly into parts of TN and the Carolinas. Longwave ridging will gradually build across the western CONUS in the wake of the shortwave trough this weekend into early next week. Broad height rises, combined with an influx of cooler continental air east of the Rockies, should limit severe thunderstorm potential for next week. ...D4/Saturday - Alabama/Georgia... Despite displaying disagreement for earlier periods, long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime for this weekend. A surface low emerging out of the lower MS River Valley early Saturday should deepen as it migrates into the southern/central Appalachians by late Saturday/early Sunday. In response to the deepening cyclone, low-level wind fields are forecast to strengthen ahead of a trailing surface trough/cold front as a 50-60 knot mid-level jet overspreads the Southeast. Forecast soundings from within the warm sector suggests 0-1 km SRH may be on the order of 100-250 m2/s2 with effective bulk shear values near 50 knots. Long-range ensemble guidance show reasonably high probability for warm sector dewpoints between 60-65 F from southern AL into western GA. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit buoyancy magnitudes, but deterministic and ensemble consensus is that SBCAPE should range between 250-500 J/kg owing to the favorable low-level moisture. Questions remain regarding the evolution of early-morning convection and storm mode, which could modulate the severe threat; however, the overall synoptic pattern and parameter space suggest that a low-CAPE/high-shear severe threat should materialize across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough currently off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to deepen across the southern Plains on Friday before migrating into the Southeast D4/Saturday. This feature will introduce severe thunderstorm chances across AL and GA, and possibly into parts of TN and the Carolinas. Longwave ridging will gradually build across the western CONUS in the wake of the shortwave trough this weekend into early next week. Broad height rises, combined with an influx of cooler continental air east of the Rockies, should limit severe thunderstorm potential for next week. ...D4/Saturday - Alabama/Georgia... Despite displaying disagreement for earlier periods, long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime for this weekend. A surface low emerging out of the lower MS River Valley early Saturday should deepen as it migrates into the southern/central Appalachians by late Saturday/early Sunday. In response to the deepening cyclone, low-level wind fields are forecast to strengthen ahead of a trailing surface trough/cold front as a 50-60 knot mid-level jet overspreads the Southeast. Forecast soundings from within the warm sector suggests 0-1 km SRH may be on the order of 100-250 m2/s2 with effective bulk shear values near 50 knots. Long-range ensemble guidance show reasonably high probability for warm sector dewpoints between 60-65 F from southern AL into western GA. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit buoyancy magnitudes, but deterministic and ensemble consensus is that SBCAPE should range between 250-500 J/kg owing to the favorable low-level moisture. Questions remain regarding the evolution of early-morning convection and storm mode, which could modulate the severe threat; however, the overall synoptic pattern and parameter space suggest that a low-CAPE/high-shear severe threat should materialize across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 24 09:31:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

Flood Watch issued January 24 at 3:40AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 24 at 3:40AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 24 at 3:40AM EST until January 25 at 1:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 24 at 3:40AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 24 at 3:40AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 24 at 3:40AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 24 at 3:40AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 24 at 3:40AM EST until January 25 at 5:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 24 at 3:40AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 24 at 3:40AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 24 at 3:40AM EST until January 25 at 5:00PM EST by NWSView the full article