NorthGeorgiaWX

Flood Watch issued January 24 at 3:40AM EST until January 25 at 5:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 24 at 3:40AM EST until January 25 at 5:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0085 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX HILL COUNTRY Mesoscale Discussion 0085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Areas affected...TX Hill Country Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240734Z - 240930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible for the next few hours across the Texas Hill Country. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown an increase in storm intensity across the TX Hill Country over the past hour, with supercellular characteristics noted within the storm over Frio, Atascosa, and southern Bexar Counties. This increase in storm strength is occurring near a local maximum of effective bulk shear within recent mesoanalysis, which is likely related to enhanced mid-level flow noted on the KEWX VAD. Given the elevated character of these storms, the primary severe risk is large hail. Low-level stability should limit the threat for damaging gusts, but a gust or two may become strong enough to penetrate through this stability to reach the surface. ..Mosier/Goss.. 01/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29039901 29549852 29879727 29499689 29079688 28749737 28799862 29039901 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected Friday through Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi River Valley, the Southeast, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A cold front currently in place across eastern TX is forecast to drift east and undergo frontolysis over the next 48-72 hours, eventually stalling across the southern Appalachians into the lower MS River Valley by 12Z Friday. To the west, a shortwave trough currently off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is expected to begin digging into the western CONUS, reaching the southern High Plains by early morning Friday. A surface cyclone should gradually intensify with the approach of the wave, migrating from the southern Plains into the lower MS River Valley as the residual frontal boundary lifts north as an effective warm front. ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS River Valley... Thunderstorm potential will generally be driven by the upper wave and attendant surface low. Cold temperatures aloft under the upper low should provide adequate instability to support thunderstorms across north TX/southern OK, and strong flow in the vicinity of the upper jet may allow for some storm organization. Additional thunderstorms are likely during the evening/overnight hours across the lower MS River Valley as a cold front associated with the deepening low sweeps into the region. Favorable kinematics should support storm organization, conditional on adequate buoyancy. Medium to long-range guidance continues to show considerable spread in the exact evolution of the surface low and the attendant warm sector, which limits confidence the degree of destabilization. Ensemble guidance reflects this uncertainty with low SREF/GEFS probabilities for MUCAPE above 500 J/kg away from coastal areas. While no risk areas are introduced due to the above concerns/uncertainties, risk areas may be introduced in subsequent updates for parts of eastern TX, LA, and MS. ...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely along the residual frontal zone across the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic region. While mid-level flow will be fairly strong (40+ knots) over a swath of 60-65 F dewpoints, meager mid-level lapse rates should limit overall convective intensity. ..Moore.. 01/24/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected Friday through Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi River Valley, the Southeast, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A cold front currently in place across eastern TX is forecast to drift east and undergo frontolysis over the next 48-72 hours, eventually stalling across the southern Appalachians into the lower MS River Valley by 12Z Friday. To the west, a shortwave trough currently off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is expected to begin digging into the western CONUS, reaching the southern High Plains by early morning Friday. A surface cyclone should gradually intensify with the approach of the wave, migrating from the southern Plains into the lower MS River Valley as the residual frontal boundary lifts north as an effective warm front. ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS River Valley... Thunderstorm potential will generally be driven by the upper wave and attendant surface low. Cold temperatures aloft under the upper low should provide adequate instability to support thunderstorms across north TX/southern OK, and strong flow in the vicinity of the upper jet may allow for some storm organization. Additional thunderstorms are likely during the evening/overnight hours across the lower MS River Valley as a cold front associated with the deepening low sweeps into the region. Favorable kinematics should support storm organization, conditional on adequate buoyancy. Medium to long-range guidance continues to show considerable spread in the exact evolution of the surface low and the attendant warm sector, which limits confidence the degree of destabilization. Ensemble guidance reflects this uncertainty with low SREF/GEFS probabilities for MUCAPE above 500 J/kg away from coastal areas. While no risk areas are introduced due to the above concerns/uncertainties, risk areas may be introduced in subsequent updates for parts of eastern TX, LA, and MS. ...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely along the residual frontal zone across the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic region. While mid-level flow will be fairly strong (40+ knots) over a swath of 60-65 F dewpoints, meager mid-level lapse rates should limit overall convective intensity. ..Moore.. 01/24/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected Friday through Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi River Valley, the Southeast, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A cold front currently in place across eastern TX is forecast to drift east and undergo frontolysis over the next 48-72 hours, eventually stalling across the southern Appalachians into the lower MS River Valley by 12Z Friday. To the west, a shortwave trough currently off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is expected to begin digging into the western CONUS, reaching the southern High Plains by early morning Friday. A surface cyclone should gradually intensify with the approach of the wave, migrating from the southern Plains into the lower MS River Valley as the residual frontal boundary lifts north as an effective warm front. ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS River Valley... Thunderstorm potential will generally be driven by the upper wave and attendant surface low. Cold temperatures aloft under the upper low should provide adequate instability to support thunderstorms across north TX/southern OK, and strong flow in the vicinity of the upper jet may allow for some storm organization. Additional thunderstorms are likely during the evening/overnight hours across the lower MS River Valley as a cold front associated with the deepening low sweeps into the region. Favorable kinematics should support storm organization, conditional on adequate buoyancy. Medium to long-range guidance continues to show considerable spread in the exact evolution of the surface low and the attendant warm sector, which limits confidence the degree of destabilization. Ensemble guidance reflects this uncertainty with low SREF/GEFS probabilities for MUCAPE above 500 J/kg away from coastal areas. While no risk areas are introduced due to the above concerns/uncertainties, risk areas may be introduced in subsequent updates for parts of eastern TX, LA, and MS. ...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely along the residual frontal zone across the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic region. While mid-level flow will be fairly strong (40+ knots) over a swath of 60-65 F dewpoints, meager mid-level lapse rates should limit overall convective intensity. ..Moore.. 01/24/2024 Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 24 at 1:41AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the lower Mississippi River Valley and central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough, currently over northern Mexico, is forecast to lift from the lower MS River Valley into the Midwest through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a weak cold front will migrate from central LA into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle through the day. Although favorable low-level moisture is currently in place across the region, the potential for several rounds of convection over the next 24 hours may inhibit the development of a substantial inland warm sector. However, some compensatory mid-level lapse rate advection within the mean southwesterly flow regime and residual low-level moisture should support MUCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg over the region. Convection may develop along/ahead of the front relatively early in the period - if not already ongoing by 12Z Thursday - given weak convective inhibition and modest ascent associated with the passing shortwave over the frontal zone. Consequently, the severe threat may manifest during the mid/late morning period before stronger flow aloft exits the region to the northeast in tandem with the mid-level jet max. However, the possibility for an early onset of deep convection makes the propensity for surface-based convection questionable away from the coast given the potential for deep cloud cover and limited time for diurnal destabilization. This concern, combined with the modest buoyancy profiles, diminishing forcing for ascent through the day, and increasing displacement of the stronger kinematics with the better moisture/buoyancy, should limit the overall severe threat. However, a few damaging gusts are possible as one or more convective lines develop along the cold front and translate east across the region. A few model solutions hint at the potential for more discrete/semi-discrete cells ahead of the front within a weakly capped warm advection regime. Forecast soundings suggests these cells should primarily be elevated, but given somewhat favorable low-level kinematics (effective SRH on the order of around 100 m2/s2), these cells could pose a tornado threat if sufficient near-surface destabilization can occur (i.e. temperatures in the low 70s). ..Moore.. 01/24/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the lower Mississippi River Valley and central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough, currently over northern Mexico, is forecast to lift from the lower MS River Valley into the Midwest through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a weak cold front will migrate from central LA into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle through the day. Although favorable low-level moisture is currently in place across the region, the potential for several rounds of convection over the next 24 hours may inhibit the development of a substantial inland warm sector. However, some compensatory mid-level lapse rate advection within the mean southwesterly flow regime and residual low-level moisture should support MUCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg over the region. Convection may develop along/ahead of the front relatively early in the period - if not already ongoing by 12Z Thursday - given weak convective inhibition and modest ascent associated with the passing shortwave over the frontal zone. Consequently, the severe threat may manifest during the mid/late morning period before stronger flow aloft exits the region to the northeast in tandem with the mid-level jet max. However, the possibility for an early onset of deep convection makes the propensity for surface-based convection questionable away from the coast given the potential for deep cloud cover and limited time for diurnal destabilization. This concern, combined with the modest buoyancy profiles, diminishing forcing for ascent through the day, and increasing displacement of the stronger kinematics with the better moisture/buoyancy, should limit the overall severe threat. However, a few damaging gusts are possible as one or more convective lines develop along the cold front and translate east across the region. A few model solutions hint at the potential for more discrete/semi-discrete cells ahead of the front within a weakly capped warm advection regime. Forecast soundings suggests these cells should primarily be elevated, but given somewhat favorable low-level kinematics (effective SRH on the order of around 100 m2/s2), these cells could pose a tornado threat if sufficient near-surface destabilization can occur (i.e. temperatures in the low 70s). ..Moore.. 01/24/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur today from coastal/southeast Texas into parts of the Southeast. The best chance for a few tornadoes and damaging winds appears to be across southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...Coastal/Southeast Texas into the Southeast... An upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico will eject over the southern Plains today. A broad swath of 50-60 kt southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread much of coastal/southeast TX into the lower MS Valley through the period. At the surface, a nearly stationary front will be draped from northeast Mexico into south TX, extending northeastward into the ArkLaTex. This boundary should move little through the day, before eventually advancing slowly southeastward tonight. Low-level moisture should gradually advance northward today across the lower MS Valley and Southeast along a diffuse warm front. This will occur in tandem with a weak surface low and subtle southern-stream shortwave trough. Numerous to widespread convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from far southeast TX into LA along and south of the front. This activity is expected to move east-northeastward across the lower MS Valley today while posing some severe risk. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints should be in place ahead of these thunderstorms across southern LA/MS. While mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain poor, modest diurnal heating should aid in the development of at least weak instability (MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) later this morning and early afternoon. There are still some differences in short-term model guidance regarding the strength of a southerly low-level jet across this region. Still, enough low-level shear is evident from various NAM/RAP/HRRR forecast soundings to support updraft rotation. A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of LA into southern MS where it appears the best chance for pre-frontal convection/supercells and a few tornadoes will exist. Thunderstorms may eventually consolidate into a line/cluster by this afternoon, while posing more of a damaging wind threat as they continue eastward. The overall severe threat should gradually diminish into western AL where weaker instability and less low-level moisture should be present. Isolated thunderstorms posing a threat for hail and strong/gusty winds also appear possible at the start of the period later this morning across parts of south/coastal TX. This convection will probably tend to remain elevated and eventually get undercut by the front. Additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening across northeast Mexico and eventually advance into south TX as ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear should aid convective organization with any thunderstorms that form. Isolated large hail appears to be the main threat, but any thunderstorms that can remain along the cold front could be near-surface-based and also pose some damaging wind risk. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/24/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur today from coastal/southeast Texas into parts of the Southeast. The best chance for a few tornadoes and damaging winds appears to be across southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...Coastal/Southeast Texas into the Southeast... An upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico will eject over the southern Plains today. A broad swath of 50-60 kt southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread much of coastal/southeast TX into the lower MS Valley through the period. At the surface, a nearly stationary front will be draped from northeast Mexico into south TX, extending northeastward into the ArkLaTex. This boundary should move little through the day, before eventually advancing slowly southeastward tonight. Low-level moisture should gradually advance northward today across the lower MS Valley and Southeast along a diffuse warm front. This will occur in tandem with a weak surface low and subtle southern-stream shortwave trough. Numerous to widespread convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from far southeast TX into LA along and south of the front. This activity is expected to move east-northeastward across the lower MS Valley today while posing some severe risk. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints should be in place ahead of these thunderstorms across southern LA/MS. While mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain poor, modest diurnal heating should aid in the development of at least weak instability (MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) later this morning and early afternoon. There are still some differences in short-term model guidance regarding the strength of a southerly low-level jet across this region. Still, enough low-level shear is evident from various NAM/RAP/HRRR forecast soundings to support updraft rotation. A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of LA into southern MS where it appears the best chance for pre-frontal convection/supercells and a few tornadoes will exist. Thunderstorms may eventually consolidate into a line/cluster by this afternoon, while posing more of a damaging wind threat as they continue eastward. The overall severe threat should gradually diminish into western AL where weaker instability and less low-level moisture should be present. Isolated thunderstorms posing a threat for hail and strong/gusty winds also appear possible at the start of the period later this morning across parts of south/coastal TX. This convection will probably tend to remain elevated and eventually get undercut by the front. Additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening across northeast Mexico and eventually advance into south TX as ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear should aid convective organization with any thunderstorms that form. Isolated large hail appears to be the main threat, but any thunderstorms that can remain along the cold front could be near-surface-based and also pose some damaging wind risk. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/24/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley on Thursday. Some enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. As such, fire weather concerns remain low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through a trough across the western/central US will bring chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US today. Much of the western, central, and southern US has had precipitation over the last 7-14 days, which has left fuels moist and not receptive to fire spread. Given the forecast cool and moist conditions (along with snow pack remaining across the northern US), wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

MD 0084 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TX Mesoscale Discussion 0084 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Areas affected...Parts of South TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240404Z - 240600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible overnight, primarily in the form of hail from 0.75-1.25 inches and wind from 40-60 mph. DISCUSSION...An uptick in thunderstorm coverage has occurred along and to the north of a wavy surface front from Deep South TX into southeast TX. The bulk of stronger mid-level flow has been confined to the cool side of the front per DFX and EWX VWP data, with pronounced weakness in the 1-3 km AGL hodograph in the CRP VWP. As such, along the northern gradient of modest MLCAPE amid moderate mid-level lapse rates, this setup will probably foster occasional mid-level updraft rotation. Marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts will likely be the main threats. A longer-duration supercell could evolve near the front along the northern fringe of mid to upper 60s surface dew points, being supported by relatively stronger low-level shear over southeast TX per the HGX VWP. Should this conditionally occur, a brief tornado will be possible. ..Grams/Thompson.. 01/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29389755 30049655 30329597 30449556 30499521 30379483 29919488 29599500 29079562 28679650 28209773 27939844 27799914 27789953 28049974 28489979 28689964 29389755 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 23 at 8:17PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 23 at 8:16PM EST until January 24 at 8:12AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 23 at 8:16PM EST until January 25 at 1:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from parts of south/southeast Texas into Louisiana. ...South/Southeast Texas into Louisiana... Ahead of an upper trough over the Southwest, a broad area of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over parts of TX into the lower MS Valley tonight. A surface front is draped southwest to northeast across this region as well, with generally mid to upper 60s present to its south. Ongoing convection along/near this boundary will probably tend to remain slightly elevated given poor low-level lapse rates and lingering boundary-layer inhibition. Still, strong deep-layer shear should aid in convective organization, with some chance for isolated hail and strong/gusty winds with the more robust updrafts. A brief tornado will also remain possible with any surface-based convection, as sufficient shear associated with a modestly enhanced southerly low-level jet migrates across southeast/coastal TX into southern LA tonight into early Wednesday morning. Greater low-level moisture exists across parts of south TX ahead of the front. 00Z soundings from CRP and BRO show steep mid-level lapse rates present atop a pronounced cap between 850 and 700 mb. It remains unclear whether thunderstorms will be able to develop across parts of northeast Mexico and be sustained into south TX later tonight. If this convection occurs, deep-layer shear of 50-55 kt will easily support supercell structures, with an associated threat for large hail and damaging winds. Even so, large-scale ascent across this region appears nebulous at best, suggesting that the overall severe threat should tend to remain isolated. ..Gleason.. 01/24/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Wet fuels and wetting rain will continue for much of the extended forecast period. Dry conditions are expected in the northern Plains/Rockies, but extensive snowcover is present with below freezing temperatures. Therefore, fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS for the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Wet fuels and wetting rain will continue for much of the extended forecast period. Dry conditions are expected in the northern Plains/Rockies, but extensive snowcover is present with below freezing temperatures. Therefore, fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS for the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area. Generally disorganized convection is ongoing this afternoon across parts of TX/LA. With favorable deep-layer shear and increasing low-level moisture, some uptick in storm organization/intensity remains possible later this afternoon into this evening from east TX into western LA, though generally weak instability is exepcted to keep any severe threat isolated. Later tonight, some guidance (including recent runs of the HRRR/RRFS) develops vigorous convection across south TX, which then evolves into an MCS near the middle TX coast. Should this occur, some severe threat could develop during the overnight hours near the TX coast and spread into southwest LA by early Wednesday morning. Finally, a couple strong storms will be possible across parts of west TX late this afternoon into the evening, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching from northern Mexico. At this time, it appears that the severe threat will be limited by weak instability, though gusty thunderstorm winds will be possible. ..Dean.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024/ ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area. Generally disorganized convection is ongoing this afternoon across parts of TX/LA. With favorable deep-layer shear and increasing low-level moisture, some uptick in storm organization/intensity remains possible later this afternoon into this evening from east TX into western LA, though generally weak instability is exepcted to keep any severe threat isolated. Later tonight, some guidance (including recent runs of the HRRR/RRFS) develops vigorous convection across south TX, which then evolves into an MCS near the middle TX coast. Should this occur, some severe threat could develop during the overnight hours near the TX coast and spread into southwest LA by early Wednesday morning. Finally, a couple strong storms will be possible across parts of west TX late this afternoon into the evening, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching from northern Mexico. At this time, it appears that the severe threat will be limited by weak instability, though gusty thunderstorm winds will be possible. ..Dean.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024/ ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area. Generally disorganized convection is ongoing this afternoon across parts of TX/LA. With favorable deep-layer shear and increasing low-level moisture, some uptick in storm organization/intensity remains possible later this afternoon into this evening from east TX into western LA, though generally weak instability is exepcted to keep any severe threat isolated. Later tonight, some guidance (including recent runs of the HRRR/RRFS) develops vigorous convection across south TX, which then evolves into an MCS near the middle TX coast. Should this occur, some severe threat could develop during the overnight hours near the TX coast and spread into southwest LA by early Wednesday morning. Finally, a couple strong storms will be possible across parts of west TX late this afternoon into the evening, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching from northern Mexico. At this time, it appears that the severe threat will be limited by weak instability, though gusty thunderstorm winds will be possible. ..Dean.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024/ ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. Read more View the full article

Flood Watch issued January 23 at 2:25PM EST until January 25 at 4:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 23 at 2:25PM EST until January 25 at 1:00PM EST by NWSView the full article