NorthGeorgiaWX

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 5:13AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 5:13AM EST until January 11 at 1:46AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 5:13AM EST until January 11 at 6:01PM EST by NWSView the full article

Lake Wind Advisory issued January 10 at 5:07AM EST until January 10 at 1:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 5:06AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 5:06AM EST until January 10 at 9:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 5:06AM EST until January 11 at 2:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 5:06AM EST until January 13 at 3:12AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 5:01AM EST until January 10 at 11:37AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 5:01AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 4:01AM EST until January 12 at 12:04AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 4:01AM EST until January 12 at 6:15PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 3:58AM EST until January 10 at 5:42PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 3:55AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 3:55AM EST until January 14 at 4:36AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 3:49AM EST until January 10 at 5:14AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 3:49AM EST until January 10 at 11:11AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 3:49AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting destabilization. However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting destabilization. However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article