NorthGeorgiaWX

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 3:49AM EST until January 10 at 11:11AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 3:49AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting destabilization. However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting destabilization. However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting destabilization. However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting destabilization. However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting destabilization. However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 10 at 3:21AM EST until January 10 at 6:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 2:55AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Synopsis... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies and Prairies during this period. Models generally indicate that it will at least begin to progress across the international border into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night, but there is sizable spread still evident concerning this evolution. This in turn appears to impact the model depiction of a significant downstream short wave impulse (of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins), particularly by late Thursday night, after digging southeast of the Great Basin toward the Southwestern international border area. Guidance, still generally indicates that it will begin pivoting to a negative tilt and accelerate through the southern Great Plains, but latest model runs, including the NAM and the Rapid Refresh, suggest that the impulse may bottom out and take a more northward track than what the GEFS and ECENS output have been indicating that past several days. Regardless, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to contribute to a deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains through the Ozark Plateau and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, with at least one developing area of low pressure across the Ark-La-Texas into central Arkansas vicinity probable. It appears that this will be accompanied by a substantive inland influx of moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, contributing to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization, aided by steepening lapse rates associated with cooling aloft. ...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley... Based on the 03Z Rapid Refresh and 00Z NAM forecast soundings, and accounting for the increasing model spread, severe probabilities are being maintained at slight risk categorization, but have been extended north-northwestward through portions of the southeastern Great Plains and toward the Ozark Plateau, where initial thunderstorm development appears possible by late Thursday evening. Otherwise, it still appears that mid/upper forcing for ascent may support thunderstorm initiation as far south and west as the Interstate 35 and Edwards Plateau vicinity of Texas. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear (including in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential are possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. In association with the mid-level cooling, an organizing squall line may evolve across parts of western Arkansas and eastern Texas into Louisiana, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Synopsis... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies and Prairies during this period. Models generally indicate that it will at least begin to progress across the international border into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night, but there is sizable spread still evident concerning this evolution. This in turn appears to impact the model depiction of a significant downstream short wave impulse (of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins), particularly by late Thursday night, after digging southeast of the Great Basin toward the Southwestern international border area. Guidance, still generally indicates that it will begin pivoting to a negative tilt and accelerate through the southern Great Plains, but latest model runs, including the NAM and the Rapid Refresh, suggest that the impulse may bottom out and take a more northward track than what the GEFS and ECENS output have been indicating that past several days. Regardless, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to contribute to a deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains through the Ozark Plateau and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, with at least one developing area of low pressure across the Ark-La-Texas into central Arkansas vicinity probable. It appears that this will be accompanied by a substantive inland influx of moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, contributing to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization, aided by steepening lapse rates associated with cooling aloft. ...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley... Based on the 03Z Rapid Refresh and 00Z NAM forecast soundings, and accounting for the increasing model spread, severe probabilities are being maintained at slight risk categorization, but have been extended north-northwestward through portions of the southeastern Great Plains and toward the Ozark Plateau, where initial thunderstorm development appears possible by late Thursday evening. Otherwise, it still appears that mid/upper forcing for ascent may support thunderstorm initiation as far south and west as the Interstate 35 and Edwards Plateau vicinity of Texas. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear (including in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential are possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. In association with the mid-level cooling, an organizing squall line may evolve across parts of western Arkansas and eastern Texas into Louisiana, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Synopsis... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies and Prairies during this period. Models generally indicate that it will at least begin to progress across the international border into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night, but there is sizable spread still evident concerning this evolution. This in turn appears to impact the model depiction of a significant downstream short wave impulse (of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins), particularly by late Thursday night, after digging southeast of the Great Basin toward the Southwestern international border area. Guidance, still generally indicates that it will begin pivoting to a negative tilt and accelerate through the southern Great Plains, but latest model runs, including the NAM and the Rapid Refresh, suggest that the impulse may bottom out and take a more northward track than what the GEFS and ECENS output have been indicating that past several days. Regardless, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to contribute to a deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains through the Ozark Plateau and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, with at least one developing area of low pressure across the Ark-La-Texas into central Arkansas vicinity probable. It appears that this will be accompanied by a substantive inland influx of moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, contributing to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization, aided by steepening lapse rates associated with cooling aloft. ...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley... Based on the 03Z Rapid Refresh and 00Z NAM forecast soundings, and accounting for the increasing model spread, severe probabilities are being maintained at slight risk categorization, but have been extended north-northwestward through portions of the southeastern Great Plains and toward the Ozark Plateau, where initial thunderstorm development appears possible by late Thursday evening. Otherwise, it still appears that mid/upper forcing for ascent may support thunderstorm initiation as far south and west as the Interstate 35 and Edwards Plateau vicinity of Texas. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear (including in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential are possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. In association with the mid-level cooling, an organizing squall line may evolve across parts of western Arkansas and eastern Texas into Louisiana, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Synopsis... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies and Prairies during this period. Models generally indicate that it will at least begin to progress across the international border into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night, but there is sizable spread still evident concerning this evolution. This in turn appears to impact the model depiction of a significant downstream short wave impulse (of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins), particularly by late Thursday night, after digging southeast of the Great Basin toward the Southwestern international border area. Guidance, still generally indicates that it will begin pivoting to a negative tilt and accelerate through the southern Great Plains, but latest model runs, including the NAM and the Rapid Refresh, suggest that the impulse may bottom out and take a more northward track than what the GEFS and ECENS output have been indicating that past several days. Regardless, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to contribute to a deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains through the Ozark Plateau and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, with at least one developing area of low pressure across the Ark-La-Texas into central Arkansas vicinity probable. It appears that this will be accompanied by a substantive inland influx of moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, contributing to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization, aided by steepening lapse rates associated with cooling aloft. ...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley... Based on the 03Z Rapid Refresh and 00Z NAM forecast soundings, and accounting for the increasing model spread, severe probabilities are being maintained at slight risk categorization, but have been extended north-northwestward through portions of the southeastern Great Plains and toward the Ozark Plateau, where initial thunderstorm development appears possible by late Thursday evening. Otherwise, it still appears that mid/upper forcing for ascent may support thunderstorm initiation as far south and west as the Interstate 35 and Edwards Plateau vicinity of Texas. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear (including in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential are possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. In association with the mid-level cooling, an organizing squall line may evolve across parts of western Arkansas and eastern Texas into Louisiana, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop the CONUS today. At the surface, a deep cyclone will lift northeast across New England and Quebec. Some convection may be ongoing during the morning hours from near Cape Cod northward into Maine. However, meager instability and poor midlevel lapse rates will likely preclude lightning. Otherwise, generally dry and/or stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier in the week will preclude thunderstorm activity across much of the rest of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Further west, a series of shortwave impulses migrating through the western periphery of the CONUS upper trough will foster areas of precipitation from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least areas of weak instability. Isolated lightning flashes will accompany convection along the WA/OR coasts, as well as over parts of the Sierra Mountains into NV/UT. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop the CONUS today. At the surface, a deep cyclone will lift northeast across New England and Quebec. Some convection may be ongoing during the morning hours from near Cape Cod northward into Maine. However, meager instability and poor midlevel lapse rates will likely preclude lightning. Otherwise, generally dry and/or stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier in the week will preclude thunderstorm activity across much of the rest of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Further west, a series of shortwave impulses migrating through the western periphery of the CONUS upper trough will foster areas of precipitation from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least areas of weak instability. Isolated lightning flashes will accompany convection along the WA/OR coasts, as well as over parts of the Sierra Mountains into NV/UT. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop the CONUS today. At the surface, a deep cyclone will lift northeast across New England and Quebec. Some convection may be ongoing during the morning hours from near Cape Cod northward into Maine. However, meager instability and poor midlevel lapse rates will likely preclude lightning. Otherwise, generally dry and/or stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier in the week will preclude thunderstorm activity across much of the rest of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Further west, a series of shortwave impulses migrating through the western periphery of the CONUS upper trough will foster areas of precipitation from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least areas of weak instability. Isolated lightning flashes will accompany convection along the WA/OR coasts, as well as over parts of the Sierra Mountains into NV/UT. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 12:31AM EST until January 12 at 3:32AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 12:31AM EST until January 12 at 3:31AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 12:31AM EST until January 10 at 5:42PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 10 at 12:09AM EST until January 10 at 6:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 10 04:31:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 09 at 11:22PM EST until January 10 at 3:00AM EST by NWSView the full article