Jump to content

NorthGeorgiaWX

Administrators
  • Posts

    34,597
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1,500

Everything posted by NorthGeorgiaWX

  1. MD 2263 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX HILL COUNTRY/CENTRAL TX Mesoscale Discussion 2263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Areas affected...TX Hill Country/Central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261337Z - 261530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Threat for brief tornadoes exists across central TX/TX Hill Country for the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations reveal a very moist air mass in place across the TX Hill Country into central TX, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This moisture is fostering modest buoyancy, with recent mesoanalysis estimating 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. A good portion of this buoyancy is confined to the low levels, as evidenced by 0-3 km MLCAPE around 100 J/kg across much of the area. Robust low-level shear is also in place, with recent VAD profiles from EWX sampling over 20 kt of 0-1 km shear and near 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. This combination of low-level buoyancy and shear could result in brief tornadoes, despite relatively small updrafts and limited storm depth. Low to mid-level flow across this area is expected to weaken throughout the day, with the stronger flow translating northeastward with time. This should limit the duration of the tornado potential, and suggests the low-probability tornado threat is likely maximizing currently. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 10/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28699867 29279887 29629875 30009845 30539755 30929696 30609628 29059710 28579798 28699867 Read more View the full article
  2. MD 2262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX Mesoscale Discussion 2262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251802Z - 252000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two are possible across central/north-central Texas this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convective outflow, which currently stretches from Young County TX southward/south-southwestward to Kimble and Edwards County TX, continues to gradually push eastward into north-central/central TX. Updraft intensity in the thunderstorms ongoing along this outflow boundary has remained relatively constant over the past two hours, with downstream airmass destabilization tempered by widespread cloud cover thus far. Northern portion of the line has recently shown a bit more eastward propagation over the past half hour as well as some sharpening of the reflectivity gradient along its leading edge. A mesoscale convective vortex may be developing in this vicinity of the line, which could be contributing to this increased forward propagation, and a few damaging gusts are possible along this portion of the line as it continues eastward. Farther south into central TX, convection within this portion of the line is weaker and less organized along the leading edge of the outflow, with an increasingly disorganized, banded structure with southern extent. However, deep convection has been realized within the warm sector ahead of the line over Hamilton County. Deep-layer shear profiles support the potential for supercells, particularly with any more discrete development, with low-level curvature moderately supportive of tornadoes as well. Modest buoyancy will be limiting factor, but a low-probability potential for a brief tornado or two exists. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 10/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32219899 33349874 33739764 33239685 31529706 30119835 30279962 32219899 Read more View the full article
  3. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 25 05:46:02 UTC 2023.View the full article
  4. MD 2260 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Areas affected...southeastern New Mexico and southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242209Z - 250045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts will gradually spread eastward off the mountains, into and through the adjacent plains through 6-8 PM MDT. DISCUSSION...Downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing slowly turning east of the Baja Peninsula, the initiation of scattered thunderstorms is now well underway along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains vicinity. This is being supported by peak boundary-layer destabilization aided by daytime heating, in the presence of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and at least modest boundary-layer moisture. Low-level wind fields are generally weak, and the convective-layer appears largely below a belt of 80-90 kt high level southwesterly flow (near and above the 300-250 mb) now crossing southwest Texas through the Texas South Plains. However deep-layer shear is probably still sufficient to support a couple of supercell storms into early this evening. There is at least some signal in the various model output that as activity propagates off the higher terrain, it may eventually become focused along a consolidating outflow boundary or weak cold front advancing toward the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity by late evening. However, it is not clear that this will pose a risk for more than localized gusts which may remain mostly below severe limits. ..Kerr/Hart.. 10/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33170480 33950461 34060400 33850340 33460315 31620268 31110259 31030330 31400393 32290453 33170480 Read more View the full article
  5. MD 2259 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COULEE REGION INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN Mesoscale Discussion 2259 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Areas affected...Coulee Region into central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242207Z - 250000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated marginally severe hail (1-1.5 in.) and perhaps strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible with weak supercell structures before storms cross the warm front. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection continues across parts of the Upper Midwest. While most storms have generally remained north of the warm front, a few storms have developed where greater surface heating has occurred within the Coulee region. A storm or two has shown some weak supercell characteristics east of La Crosse, given the belt of stronger mid-level flow across the area. Storms will be capable of marginally severe hail (1-1.5 in.) and perhaps a damaging wind gust prior to crossing the warm front into more stable air. The overall threat should remain marginal as mid-level lapse rates are not as steep as earlier today. ..Wendt/Hart.. 10/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 43639265 44409123 44549008 44518975 44238910 43718916 43319024 43339035 43299212 43459264 43639265 Read more View the full article
  6. MD 2260 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Areas affected...southeastern New Mexico and southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242209Z - 250045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts will gradually spread eastward off the mountains, into and through the adjacent plains through 6-8 PM MDT. DISCUSSION...Downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing slowly turning east of the Baja Peninsula, the initiation of scattered thunderstorms is now well underway along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains vicinity. This is being supported by peak boundary-layer destabilization aided by daytime heating, in the presence of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and at least modest boundary-layer moisture. Low-level wind fields are generally weak, and the convective-layer appears largely below a belt of 80-90 kt high level southwesterly flow (near and above the 300-250 mb) now crossing southwest Texas through the Texas South Plains. However deep-layer shear is probably still sufficient to support a couple of supercell storms into early this evening. There is at least some signal in the various model output that as activity propagates off the higher terrain, it may eventually become focused along a consolidating outflow boundary or weak cold front advancing toward the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity by late evening. However, it is not clear that this will pose a risk for more than localized gusts which may remain mostly below severe limits. ..Kerr/Hart.. 10/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33170480 33950461 34060400 33850340 33460315 31620268 31110259 31030330 31400393 32290453 33170480 Read more View the full article
  7. MD 2258 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO Mesoscale Discussion 2258 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Areas affected...southwest New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241700Z - 241900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may develop over the next few hours across southeast New Mexico. Local small hail and gusty winds may accompany the strongest storms. The overall severe threat appears low, and a watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development continues near the center of a mid-/upper-level shortwave trough currently propagating eastward through southern Arizona, New Mexico, and northwestern Mexico. Colder temperatures aloft and diurnal heating are supporting updraft development along the higher terrain, with strong south-southwesterly flow driving subsequent storm motion northeastward. Mesoanalysis suggests eroding inhibition and gradually increasing MLCAPE across the area, perhaps up to around 500 J/kg currently. MESH values around 1 inch have been observed recently with the strongest cores. Relatively moist low levels, gradually steepening lapse rates, and strengthening 0-6-km shear should support this activity continuing through the early afternoon. Localized small hail up to 1-1.5 inches and gusty winds should be the primary concerns across the area for the next few hours. A watch is not anticipated for this activity, but upscale growth and environmental evolution will continue to be monitored for possible downstream hazards later this afternoon. ..Flournoy/Guyer.. 10/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 31920896 32510892 32980868 33280807 33410718 33430631 33370603 33200580 32870560 32480566 31990605 31880657 31860727 31870829 31390829 31410882 31920896 Read more View the full article
  8. MD 2257 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN IA...SOUTHERN MN...AND WI Mesoscale Discussion 2257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Areas affected...Portions of far northern IA...southern MN...and WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241506Z - 241730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Mainly elevated thunderstorms should pose an isolated hail threat over the next few hours. Watch issuance is unlikely this morning. DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from parts of far southwestern MN into WI. This convection is largely related to ascent associated with a west-southwesterly low-level jet, and modest divergence attendant to an upper-level jet extending across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A surface front also extends from far northern IA/southern MN into WI. These thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated to the cool side of the surface front. Still, steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z MPX sounding (around 7.7 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer) are supporting MUCAPE of 1000-1700 J/kg along/north of the front. Modest low-level west-southwesterlies quickly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels based on recent VWPs from area radars. Corresponding 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear and elongated, nearly straight hodographs above 3 km AGL should support updraft organization, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated severe hail generally up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter will be possible with the more robust cores as this activity spreads east-northeastward over the next couple of hours. The potential for strong/gusty winds is less clear, as poor low-level lapse rates and generally elevated convection may tend to limit downdrafts from reaching the surface. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 10/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 43429120 43269323 43229490 43319572 43679587 44269496 44689348 44959187 45119098 45319012 45458970 45438879 45078763 44838728 44358751 44268828 44148935 43429120 Read more View the full article
  9. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 24 05:31:02 UTC 2023.View the full article
  10. ASUS64 KMRX 161532 RTPMRX Daily Temperature And Precipitation Table National Weather Service Morristown, Tennessee 1131 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Following is the Smoky Mountain Temperature and Precipitation Information, valid for a 24 hour period ending at 7:30 AM. .BR MRX 1016 E DH08/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ : :ID location high low pcpn snow snow depth GTLT1: Sugarland Center : 53 / 42 / 0.11 / 0.0 / 0 NFGT1: Newfound Gap, TN : 40 / 31 / 0.26 / 0.0 / 0 TNST1: Cades Cove : 52 / 41 / 0.20 / 0.0 / 0 MTLT1: Mount LeConte : 35 / 25 / 0.40 / 1.0 / 1 CRKN7: Oconaluftee : 62 / 48 / 0.01 / M / M : .END These data are preliminary and have not undergone final quality control by the National Centers for Environmental Information /NCEI/. Therefore...these data are subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at www.ncei.noaa.gov.
  11. You may have noticed that meteorologists and climatologists define seasons differently from “regular” or astronomical spring, summer, fall, and winter. So, why do meteorological and astronomical seasons begin and end on different dates? In short, it’s because the astronomical seasons are based on the position of Earth in relation to the sun, whereas the meteorological seasons are based on the annual temperature cycle. The Astronomical Seasons People have used observable periodic natural phenomena to mark time for thousands of years. The natural rotation of Earth around the sun forms the basis for the astronomical calendar, in which we define seasons with two solstices and two equinoxes. Earth’s tilt and the sun’s alignment over the equator determine both the solstices and equinoxes. The equinoxes mark the times when the sun passes directly above the equator. In the Northern Hemisphere, the summer solstice falls on or around June 21, the winter solstice on or around December 22, the vernal or spring equinox on or around March 21, and the autumnal equinox on or around September 22. These seasons are reversed but begin on the same dates in the Southern Hemisphere. Because Earth actually travels around the sun in 365.24 days, an extra day is needed every fourth year, creating what we know as Leap Year. This also causes the exact date of the solstices and equinoxes to vary. Additionally, the elliptical shape of Earth’s orbit around the sun causes the lengths of the astronomical seasons to vary between 89 and 93 days. These variations in season length and start date would make it very difficult to consistently compare climatological statistics for a particular season from one year to the next. Thus, the meteorological seasons were born. The Meteorological Seasons Meteorologists and climatologists break the seasons down into groupings of three months based on the annual temperature cycle as well as our calendar. We generally think of winter as the coldest time of the year and summer as the warmest time of the year, with spring and fall being the transition seasons, and that is what the meteorological seasons are based on. Meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere includes March, April, and May; meteorological summer includes June, July, and August; meteorological fall includes September, October, and November; and meteorological winter includes December, January, and February. Meteorological observing and forecasting led to the creation of these seasons, and they are more closely tied to our monthly civil calendar than the astronomical seasons are. The length of the meteorological seasons is also more consistent, ranging from 90 days for winter of a non-leap year to 92 days for spring and summer. By following the civil calendar and having less variation in season length and start, it becomes much easier to calculate seasonal statistics from the monthly statistics, both of which are very useful for agriculture, commerce, and a variety of other purposes. Big Canoe Astronomical Information Sunrise/Sunset WWW.DACULAWEATHER.COM DaculaWeather.com is a private weather site featuring live current conditions, north Georgia weather forecast, radar, satellite, maps, news and more.
  12. You may have noticed that meteorologists and climatologists define seasons differently from “regular” or astronomical spring, summer, fall, and winter. So, why do meteorological and astronomical seasons begin and end on different dates? In short, it’s because the astronomical seasons are based on the position of Earth in relation to the sun, whereas the meteorological seasons are based on the annual temperature cycle. The Astronomical Seasons People have used observable periodic natural phenomena to mark time for thousands of years. The natural rotation of Earth around the sun forms the basis for the astronomical calendar, in which we define seasons with two solstices and two equinoxes. Earth’s tilt and the sun’s alignment over the equator determine both the solstices and equinoxes. The equinoxes mark the times when the sun passes directly above the equator. In the Northern Hemisphere, the summer solstice falls on or around June 21, the winter solstice on or around December 22, the vernal or spring equinox on or around March 21, and the autumnal equinox on or around September 22. These seasons are reversed but begin on the same dates in the Southern Hemisphere. Because Earth actually travels around the sun in 365.24 days, an extra day is needed every fourth year, creating what we know as Leap Year. This also causes the exact date of the solstices and equinoxes to vary. Additionally, the elliptical shape of Earth’s orbit around the sun causes the lengths of the astronomical seasons to vary between 89 and 93 days. These variations in season length and start date would make it very difficult to consistently compare climatological statistics for a particular season from one year to the next. Thus, the meteorological seasons were born. The Meteorological Seasons Meteorologists and climatologists break the seasons down into groupings of three months based on the annual temperature cycle as well as our calendar. We generally think of winter as the coldest time of the year and summer as the warmest time of the year, with spring and fall being the transition seasons, and that is what the meteorological seasons are based on. Meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere includes March, April, and May; meteorological summer includes June, July, and August; meteorological fall includes September, October, and November; and meteorological winter includes December, January, and February. Meteorological observing and forecasting led to the creation of these seasons, and they are more closely tied to our monthly civil calendar than the astronomical seasons are. The length of the meteorological seasons is also more consistent, ranging from 90 days for winter of a non-leap year to 92 days for spring and summer. By following the civil calendar and having less variation in season length and start, it becomes much easier to calculate seasonal statistics from the monthly statistics, both of which are very useful for agriculture, commerce, and a variety of other purposes. Big Canoe Astronomical Information Sunrise/Sunset WWW.DACULAWEATHER.COM DaculaWeather.com is a private weather site featuring live current conditions, north Georgia weather forecast, radar, satellite, maps, news and more.
  13. You may have noticed that meteorologists and climatologists define seasons differently from “regular” or astronomical spring, summer, fall, and winter. So, why do meteorological and astronomical seasons begin and end on different dates? In short, it’s because the astronomical seasons are based on the position of Earth in relation to the sun, whereas the meteorological seasons are based on the annual temperature cycle. The Astronomical Seasons People have used observable periodic natural phenomena to mark time for thousands of years. The natural rotation of Earth around the sun forms the basis for the astronomical calendar, in which we define seasons with two solstices and two equinoxes. Earth’s tilt and the sun’s alignment over the equator determine both the solstices and equinoxes. The equinoxes mark the times when the sun passes directly above the equator. In the Northern Hemisphere, the summer solstice falls on or around June 21, the winter solstice on or around December 22, the vernal or spring equinox on or around March 21, and the autumnal equinox on or around September 22. These seasons are reversed but begin on the same dates in the Southern Hemisphere. Because Earth actually travels around the sun in 365.24 days, an extra day is needed every fourth year, creating what we know as Leap Year. This also causes the exact date of the solstices and equinoxes to vary. Additionally, the elliptical shape of Earth’s orbit around the sun causes the lengths of the astronomical seasons to vary between 89 and 93 days. These variations in season length and start date would make it very difficult to consistently compare climatological statistics for a particular season from one year to the next. Thus, the meteorological seasons were born. The Meteorological Seasons Meteorologists and climatologists break the seasons down into groupings of three months based on the annual temperature cycle as well as our calendar. We generally think of winter as the coldest time of the year and summer as the warmest time of the year, with spring and fall being the transition seasons, and that is what the meteorological seasons are based on. Meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere includes March, April, and May; meteorological summer includes June, July, and August; meteorological fall includes September, October, and November; and meteorological winter includes December, January, and February. Meteorological observing and forecasting led to the creation of these seasons, and they are more closely tied to our monthly civil calendar than the astronomical seasons are. The length of the meteorological seasons is also more consistent, ranging from 90 days for winter of a non-leap year to 92 days for spring and summer. By following the civil calendar and having less variation in season length and start, it becomes much easier to calculate seasonal statistics from the monthly statistics, both of which are very useful for agriculture, commerce, and a variety of other purposes. Big Canoe Astronomical Information Sunrise/Sunset WWW.DACULAWEATHER.COM DaculaWeather.com is a private weather site featuring live current conditions, north Georgia weather forecast, radar, satellite, maps, news and more.
  14. You may have noticed that meteorologists and climatologists define seasons differently from “regular” or astronomical spring, summer, fall, and winter. So, why do meteorological and astronomical seasons begin and end on different dates? In short, it’s because the astronomical seasons are based on the position of Earth in relation to the sun, whereas the meteorological seasons are based on the annual temperature cycle. The Astronomical Seasons People have used observable periodic natural phenomena to mark time for thousands of years. The natural rotation of Earth around the sun forms the basis for the astronomical calendar, in which we define seasons with two solstices and two equinoxes. Earth’s tilt and the sun’s alignment over the equator determine both the solstices and equinoxes. The equinoxes mark the times when the sun passes directly above the equator. In the Northern Hemisphere, the summer solstice falls on or around June 21, the winter solstice on or around December 22, the vernal or spring equinox on or around March 21, and the autumnal equinox on or around September 22. These seasons are reversed but begin on the same dates in the Southern Hemisphere. Because Earth actually travels around the sun in 365.24 days, an extra day is needed every fourth year, creating what we know as Leap Year. This also causes the exact date of the solstices and equinoxes to vary. Additionally, the elliptical shape of Earth’s orbit around the sun causes the lengths of the astronomical seasons to vary between 89 and 93 days. These variations in season length and start date would make it very difficult to consistently compare climatological statistics for a particular season from one year to the next. Thus, the meteorological seasons were born. The Meteorological Seasons Meteorologists and climatologists break the seasons down into groupings of three months based on the annual temperature cycle as well as our calendar. We generally think of winter as the coldest time of the year and summer as the warmest time of the year, with spring and fall being the transition seasons, and that is what the meteorological seasons are based on. Meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere includes March, April, and May; meteorological summer includes June, July, and August; meteorological fall includes September, October, and November; and meteorological winter includes December, January, and February. Meteorological observing and forecasting led to the creation of these seasons, and they are more closely tied to our monthly civil calendar than the astronomical seasons are. The length of the meteorological seasons is also more consistent, ranging from 90 days for winter of a non-leap year to 92 days for spring and summer. By following the civil calendar and having less variation in season length and start, it becomes much easier to calculate seasonal statistics from the monthly statistics, both of which are very useful for agriculture, commerce, and a variety of other purposes.
  15. until
  16. until
  17. until
  18. until
    Virtual training To schedule: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7892784180521501527
  19. until
    In person training To schedule: https://www.weather.gov/ffc/skywarnsched
×
×
  • Create New...