NorthGeorgiaWX

The main focus on this article is not to make a winter forecast, but to explore what effects El Nino's and teleconnections have on winter weather across the southeast. One of the main sources of data in this report comes from a weather friend of mine that I call "Brother Larry". Larry would prefer to remain anonymous, so from here on out you'll hear me refer to Larry as "Brother Larry". :-) Larry has a wealth of information about the weather history in Georgia, and I'll be using a lot of his findings to help give you an idea how this winter may turn out, based on the environment created by the El Nino, as well as several other factors. Again, this data is based on analog years, or those years that most closely identify with the current patterns, so keep that in mind. Analog's are not perfect, but they do give us a very good idea about how things have happened in the past and how they may happen again in the future. Again, almost all of the text below (other than a few of my own edits and additions) is from Larry, and he gets all the credit for the research and stats. ​ ENSO and Southeast US Winters This data was compiled by taking a list of 26 “cold” US winters (Dec/Jan/Feb) since 1894 -1895 (i.e., the coldest 23%) for the eastern third of the US. This requires solid, widespread, below normal anomalies, and requires the southeast to be pretty chilly itself. The two maps to the right were created with data from the list of years below, but that dataset only goes back to 1948, so the maps I'm displaying are not 100% complete with the years in the list. Here's the list of those winters, and you can see the years I used on the maps themselves. Also, Larry's 26 coldest winters study was done the better part of 10 years back, since then, it is possible that some of 09, 10, 13, 14, etc. could be added, although he is not reassessing those now. 2002 - 20031995 - 19961993 - 19941981 - 19821980 - 19811978 - 19791977 - 19781976 - 19771969 - 19701968 - 19691967 - 19681963 - 19641962 - 19631960 - 19611947 - 19481939 - 19401935 - 19361917 - 19181911 - 19121909 - 19101904 - 19051903 - 19041901 - 19021900 - 19011898 - 18991894 - 1895 Temperature Anomalies Precipitation Nino Base State ENSO Regions ONI Chart from Golden Gate Weather Services - http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.png Forecast So now that we have our list of base years, let's look at the base Nino state for those winters. Before we can do that, we need to take a look at the various Nino/Nina classifications. Graphs and Charts The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the standard that NOAA uses for identifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific. The ONI is defined as the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 50N-50S, 120W-170W). Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5 anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Niña) events. The threshold is further broken down into: Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly)Moderate (1.0 to 1.4)Strong (1.5 to 1.9)Very Strong (≥ 2.0) For the purpose of this blog post, for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods. Here's an analysis of the 26 cold winters by ENSO state: Strong Nino: 0 of 26 (0%)Moderate Nino: 1 of 26 (4%)Weak Nino: 9 of 26 (35%)Neutral positive: 4 of 26 (15%)Neutral negative: 5 of 26 (19%)Weak Nina: 6 of 26 (23%)Moderate Nina: 1 of 26 (4%)Strong Nina: 0 of 26 (0%) Dec-Feb temperature anomalies during weak Nino's Notice that out of all the cold years, the majority of them occurred during weak Nino's (35%). Also notice that out of all of those cold winters, none of them occurred with a strong Nino or a strong Nina. The map on the left depicts the temperature anomalies that occurred during a Weak Nino. Due to the data only going back to 1948, all of the years are not depicted, but this will give you a good idea. As you can see, a weak Nino is what we'd like to see come Dec-Feb. If the current one stays too strong, it could severely limit our cold this winter based on past analogs. keep in mind, Larry's study is based on temperatures, not precipitation. ​ ​Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) +PDO or Warm State -PDO or Cold State PDO Index (http://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php) While it's easy to look at one specific weather pattern, there are many factors that determine how a winter will turn out, with the ENSO state being just one of those. But there are other teleconnections and long term patterns that also have an effect on our winter weather, and they all work in tandem with each other. Graphs and Charts Now we are going to turn our attention to the PDO state or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. First, the definition from the National Center for Environmental Information: "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in the Pacific Basin and the North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average sea level pressures over the North Pacific, the PDO has a negative value (Courtesy of Mantua, 1999). " Here's an analysis of the cold 26 winters by DJF averaged PDO status:+ PDO: 18 of 58 (31%)- PDO: 8 of 57 (14%)Again, much as it was with weak Nino's, many of our coldest winters occurred during a + PDO state, while only 8 out of 57 occurred during a negative PDO state. ​ Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) In order for us to get long lasting cold air that stays locked in, we need some blocking. There are several teleconnection patterns that aid in developing this blocking, one of which is the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO. Graphs and Charts Negative NAO (-NAO) Positive NAO (+NAO) Here's the definition of the NAO: "The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is part of the Arctic Oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity." Strong positive phases of the NAO tend to be associated with above-average temperatures in the eastern United States and across northern Europe and below-average temperatures in Greenland and oftentimes across southern Europe and the Middle East. They are also associated with above-average precipitation over northern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and below-average precipitation over southern and central Europe. Opposite patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are typically observed during strong negative phases of the NAO. For us, negative is what we're looking for in the winter. Let's take a look at the analysis of the cold 26 Dec-Feb winters by averaged NAO status: – NAO: 19 of 48 (40%)+ NAO: 7 of 67 (10%)Again, a large number of the cold winters had a negative NAO. ​​ Piecing It All Together... Now let's take the combination of the ENSO state (in our case, Nino), and factor in the PDO and NAO and let's see what we get. Here's the analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status:+ PDO/-NAO: 12 of 25 (46%)- PDO/-NAO: 7 of 23 (30%) (all 7 had (PDO – NAO) > 0)+ PDO/+NAO: 6 of 33 (18%)- PDO/+NAO: 1 of 34 (3%)Things start to change a little. Obviously, the combination of +PDO and -NAO are the best combination, and that makes perfect sense. During the positive phase of the PDO, the wintertime Aleutian low is deepened and shifted southward, warm/humid air is advected along the North American west coast and temperatures are higher than usual from the Pacific Northwest to Alaska but below normal in Mexico and the southeastern United States. Add the effects of the blocking provided by the NAO and you lock in the cold air instead of having it rush out to sea. Now, let's really lay it out. Here's "Brother Larry's" analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of ENSO state and Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status: Strong Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 6 (0%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 1 (0%) Moderate Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 2 (50%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 2 (0%) Weak Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 6 of 7 (86%)-PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%)+PDO/+NAO: 1 of 2 (50%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 4 (0%) Neutral Positive:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 4 (50%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%) Neutral Negative:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 3 (33%)-PDO/-NAO: 2 of 7 (29%)+PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%) Weak Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%)-PDO/-NAO: 3 of 5 (60%)+PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%) Moderate Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%) Strong Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 2 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 6 (0%) Conclusions... Weak Nino’s give the highest percentage chance for cold of any of the ENSO states by far (with weak Nina’s second); however, a combo of -PDO/+NAO seems to make it difficult even for weak Nino’s.A very impressive 13 of 16 (81%) of the aggregate of weak Nino's and weak Nina's with -NAO were cold.Don't ever bet on cold with either a strong Nino or a strong Nina since none of the 23 were cold.+PDO about doubles the percent chance for cold versus a -PDO.A -NAO more than doubles the percentage chance for cold versus a +NAO and a somewhat higher chance than a +PDO gives. So, I give small edge to –NAO over a +PDO regarding cold prospects. Regardless, both are very important.A +PDO/-NAO combo gives close to twice the percentage chance for cold versus the percentage chance for all PDO/NAO combos in the aggregate.A -PDO/-NAO is the next best combo for cold prospects, but mainly if NAO is more negative than PDO.Don't ever bet on cold with a combination of -PDO/+NAO, since only 1 out of 34 were cold.If there is a +PDO, the chances for a –NAO appear to be high for only weak to moderate Nino’s. The chances appear to only be about 50-50 for strong Nino’s. For neutral ENSO, the chances seem to be surprisingly low (partial negative correlation suggested).The best shot at a +PDO/-NAO combo appears to be with a weak to moderate Nino's. On the other hand, only 3 of 34 (9%) Nina’s had a +PDO/-NAO.A pretty high 17 of 34 (50%) Nina’s had a –PDO/+NAO.A +PDO is difficult with a moderate to strong Nina. Only one out of 16 (6%) had one.A –PDO seems rather difficult with a strong Nino, only 2 out of 15 (13%) had one.+PDO and –PDO winters are about evenly split. But +NAO winters have been a bit more common than -NAO in long term: 58% vs. 42%. Winter Precipitation Regarding wintry precipitation for Atlanta, when looking at the three standalone super Nino's (1972-1973, 1982 -1983, 1997-1998) as well as the six strong to super strong 2nd year Nino's (1877-1888, 1888-1889, 1896-1887, 1905-1906, 1940-1941, 1987-1988), Atlanta more often than not, had one major winter storm, but not always:1877-1888: 2.5" 1/3/1878 & a non-major freezing rain followed on 1/9/18781888-1889: 6" 2/21/18891896-1967: 6.2" 12/2/18961905-1906: 6.2" for the season including 3.5"+ major 1/26/1906, measurable snow D, J, and F1940 -1941: only T of snow1972 -1973: historic ZR 1/7-8/1973, which included 1" mainly ice pellets; (also, historic snow hit central GA in Feb though Atlanta missed that one)1982 -1983: 10.3" S/IP for season including 7.9" 3/24/1983 (heaviest since 1940) and measurable snow J, F, and M1987- 1988: 4.2" of mainly IP 1/7/1988 (would have been ~8" if all snow)1997- 1998: only 0.6" 12/29/1997 View the full article

The main focus on this article is not to make a winter forecast, but to explore what effects El Nino's and teleconnections have on winter weather across the southeast. One of the main sources of data in this report comes from a weather friend of mine that I call "Brother Larry". Larry would prefer to remain anonymous, so from here on out you'll hear me refer to Larry as "Brother Larry". :-) Larry has a wealth of information about the weather history in Georgia, and I'll be using a lot of his findings to help give you an idea how this winter may turn out, based on the environment created by the El Nino, as well as several other factors. Again, this data is based on analog years, or those years that most closely identify with the current patterns, so keep that in mind. Analog's are not perfect, but they do give us a very good idea about how things have happened in the past and how they may happen again in the future. Again, almost all of the text below (other than a few of my own edits and additions) is from Larry, and he gets all the credit for the research and stats. ​ ENSO and Southeast US Winters This data was compiled by taking a list of 26 “cold” US winters (Dec/Jan/Feb) since 1894 -1895 (i.e., the coldest 23%) for the eastern third of the US. This requires solid, widespread, below normal anomalies, and requires the southeast to be pretty chilly itself. The two maps to the right were created with data from the list of years below, but that dataset only goes back to 1948, so the maps I'm displaying are not 100% complete with the years in the list. Here's the list of those winters, and you can see the years I used on the maps themselves. Also, Larry's 26 coldest winters study was done the better part of 10 years back, since then, it is possible that some of 09, 10, 13, 14, etc. could be added, although he is not reassessing those now. 2002 - 20031995 - 19961993 - 19941981 - 19821980 - 19811978 - 19791977 - 19781976 - 19771969 - 19701968 - 19691967 - 19681963 - 19641962 - 19631960 - 19611947 - 19481939 - 19401935 - 19361917 - 19181911 - 19121909 - 19101904 - 19051903 - 19041901 - 19021900 - 19011898 - 18991894 - 1895 Temperature Anomalies Precipitation Nino Base State ENSO Regions ONI Chart from Golden Gate Weather Services - http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.png Forecast So now that we have our list of base years, let's look at the base Nino state for those winters. Before we can do that, we need to take a look at the various Nino/Nina classifications. Graphs and Charts The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the standard that NOAA uses for identifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific. The ONI is defined as the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 50N-50S, 120W-170W). Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5 anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Niña) events. The threshold is further broken down into: Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly)Moderate (1.0 to 1.4)Strong (1.5 to 1.9)Very Strong (≥ 2.0) For the purpose of this blog post, for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods. Here's an analysis of the 26 cold winters by ENSO state: Strong Nino: 0 of 26 (0%)Moderate Nino: 1 of 26 (4%)Weak Nino: 9 of 26 (35%)Neutral positive: 4 of 26 (15%)Neutral negative: 5 of 26 (19%)Weak Nina: 6 of 26 (23%)Moderate Nina: 1 of 26 (4%)Strong Nina: 0 of 26 (0%) Dec-Feb temperature anomalies during weak Nino's Notice that out of all the cold years, the majority of them occurred during weak Nino's (35%). Also notice that out of all of those cold winters, none of them occurred with a strong Nino or a strong Nina. The map on the left depicts the temperature anomalies that occurred during a Weak Nino. Due to the data only going back to 1948, all of the years are not depicted, but this will give you a good idea. As you can see, a weak Nino is what we'd like to see come Dec-Feb. If the current one stays too strong, it could severely limit our cold this winter based on past analogs. keep in mind, Larry's study is based on temperatures, not precipitation. ​ ​Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) +PDO or Warm State -PDO or Cold State PDO Index (http://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php) While it's easy to look at one specific weather pattern, there are many factors that determine how a winter will turn out, with the ENSO state being just one of those. But there are other teleconnections and long term patterns that also have an effect on our winter weather, and they all work in tandem with each other. Graphs and Charts Now we are going to turn our attention to the PDO state or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. First, the definition from the National Center for Environmental Information: "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in the Pacific Basin and the North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average sea level pressures over the North Pacific, the PDO has a negative value (Courtesy of Mantua, 1999). " Here's an analysis of the cold 26 winters by DJF averaged PDO status:+ PDO: 18 of 58 (31%)- PDO: 8 of 57 (14%)Again, much as it was with weak Nino's, many of our coldest winters occurred during a + PDO state, while only 8 out of 57 occurred during a negative PDO state. ​ Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) In order for us to get long lasting cold air that stays locked in, we need some blocking. There are several teleconnection patterns that aid in developing this blocking, one of which is the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO. Graphs and Charts Negative NAO (-NAO) Positive NAO (+NAO) Here's the definition of the NAO: "The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is part of the Arctic Oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity." Strong positive phases of the NAO tend to be associated with above-average temperatures in the eastern United States and across northern Europe and below-average temperatures in Greenland and oftentimes across southern Europe and the Middle East. They are also associated with above-average precipitation over northern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and below-average precipitation over southern and central Europe. Opposite patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are typically observed during strong negative phases of the NAO. For us, negative is what we're looking for in the winter. Let's take a look at the analysis of the cold 26 Dec-Feb winters by averaged NAO status: – NAO: 19 of 48 (40%)+ NAO: 7 of 67 (10%)Again, a large number of the cold winters had a negative NAO. ​​ Piecing It All Together... Now let's take the combination of the ENSO state (in our case, Nino), and factor in the PDO and NAO and let's see what we get. Here's the analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status:+ PDO/-NAO: 12 of 25 (46%)- PDO/-NAO: 7 of 23 (30%) (all 7 had (PDO – NAO) > 0)+ PDO/+NAO: 6 of 33 (18%)- PDO/+NAO: 1 of 34 (3%)Things start to change a little. Obviously, the combination of +PDO and -NAO are the best combination, and that makes perfect sense. During the positive phase of the PDO, the wintertime Aleutian low is deepened and shifted southward, warm/humid air is advected along the North American west coast and temperatures are higher than usual from the Pacific Northwest to Alaska but below normal in Mexico and the southeastern United States. Add the effects of the blocking provided by the NAO and you lock in the cold air instead of having it rush out to sea. Now, let's really lay it out. Here's "Brother Larry's" analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of ENSO state and Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status: Strong Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 6 (0%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 1 (0%) Moderate Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 2 (50%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 2 (0%) Weak Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 6 of 7 (86%)-PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%)+PDO/+NAO: 1 of 2 (50%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 4 (0%) Neutral Positive:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 4 (50%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%) Neutral Negative:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 3 (33%)-PDO/-NAO: 2 of 7 (29%)+PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%) Weak Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%)-PDO/-NAO: 3 of 5 (60%)+PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%) Moderate Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%) Strong Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 2 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 6 (0%) Conclusions... Weak Nino’s give the highest percentage chance for cold of any of the ENSO states by far (with weak Nina’s second); however, a combo of -PDO/+NAO seems to make it difficult even for weak Nino’s.A very impressive 13 of 16 (81%) of the aggregate of weak Nino's and weak Nina's with -NAO were cold.Don't ever bet on cold with either a strong Nino or a strong Nina since none of the 23 were cold.+PDO about doubles the percent chance for cold versus a -PDO.A -NAO more than doubles the percentage chance for cold versus a +NAO and a somewhat higher chance than a +PDO gives. So, I give small edge to –NAO over a +PDO regarding cold prospects. Regardless, both are very important.A +PDO/-NAO combo gives close to twice the percentage chance for cold versus the percentage chance for all PDO/NAO combos in the aggregate.A -PDO/-NAO is the next best combo for cold prospects, but mainly if NAO is more negative than PDO.Don't ever bet on cold with a combination of -PDO/+NAO, since only 1 out of 34 were cold.If there is a +PDO, the chances for a –NAO appear to be high for only weak to moderate Nino’s. The chances appear to only be about 50-50 for strong Nino’s. For neutral ENSO, the chances seem to be surprisingly low (partial negative correlation suggested).The best shot at a +PDO/-NAO combo appears to be with a weak to moderate Nino's. On the other hand, only 3 of 34 (9%) Nina’s had a +PDO/-NAO.A pretty high 17 of 34 (50%) Nina’s had a –PDO/+NAO.A +PDO is difficult with a moderate to strong Nina. Only one out of 16 (6%) had one.A –PDO seems rather difficult with a strong Nino, only 2 out of 15 (13%) had one.+PDO and –PDO winters are about evenly split. But +NAO winters have been a bit more common than -NAO in long term: 58% vs. 42%. Winter Precipitation Regarding wintry precipitation for Atlanta, when looking at the three standalone super Nino's (1972-1973, 1982 -1983, 1997-1998) as well as the six strong to super strong 2nd year Nino's (1877-1888, 1888-1889, 1896-1887, 1905-1906, 1940-1941, 1987-1988), Atlanta more often than not, had one major winter storm, but not always:1877-1888: 2.5" 1/3/1878 & a non-major freezing rain followed on 1/9/18781888-1889: 6" 2/21/18891896-1967: 6.2" 12/2/18961905-1906: 6.2" for the season including 3.5"+ major 1/26/1906, measurable snow D, J, and F1940 -1941: only T of snow1972 -1973: historic ZR 1/7-8/1973, which included 1" mainly ice pellets; (also, historic snow hit central GA in Feb though Atlanta missed that one)1982 -1983: 10.3" S/IP for season including 7.9" 3/24/1983 (heaviest since 1940) and measurable snow J, F, and M1987- 1988: 4.2" of mainly IP 1/7/1988 (would have been ~8" if all snow)1997- 1998: only 0.6" 12/29/1997 View the full article

The main focus on this article is not to make a winter forecast, but to explore what effects El Nino's and teleconnections have on winter weather across the southeast. One of the main sources of data in this report comes from a weather friend of mine that I call "Brother Larry". Larry would prefer to remain anonymous, so from here on out you'll hear me refer to Larry as "Brother Larry". :-) Larry has a wealth of information about the weather history in Georgia, and I'll be using a lot of his findings to help give you an idea how this winter may turn out, based on the environment created by the El Nino, as well as several other factors. Again, this data is based on analog years, or those years that most closely identify with the current patterns, so keep that in mind. Analog's are not perfect, but they do give us a very good idea about how things have happened in the past and how they may happen again in the future. Again, almost all of the text below (other than a few of my own edits and additions) is from Larry, and he gets all the credit for the research and stats. ​ ENSO and Southeast US Winters This data was compiled by taking a list of 26 “cold” US winters (Dec/Jan/Feb) since 1894 -1895 (i.e., the coldest 23%) for the eastern third of the US. This requires solid, widespread, below normal anomalies, and requires the southeast to be pretty chilly itself. The two maps to the right were created with data from the list of years below, but that dataset only goes back to 1948, so the maps I'm displaying are not 100% complete with the years in the list. Here's the list of those winters, and you can see the years I used on the maps themselves. Also, Larry's 26 coldest winters study was done the better part of 10 years back, since then, it is possible that some of 09, 10, 13, 14, etc. could be added, although he is not reassessing those now. 2002 - 20031995 - 19961993 - 19941981 - 19821980 - 19811978 - 19791977 - 19781976 - 19771969 - 19701968 - 19691967 - 19681963 - 19641962 - 19631960 - 19611947 - 19481939 - 19401935 - 19361917 - 19181911 - 19121909 - 19101904 - 19051903 - 19041901 - 19021900 - 19011898 - 18991894 - 1895 Temperature Anomalies Precipitation Nino Base State ENSO Regions ONI Chart from Golden Gate Weather Services - http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.png Forecast So now that we have our list of base years, let's look at the base Nino state for those winters. Before we can do that, we need to take a look at the various Nino/Nina classifications. Graphs and Charts The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the standard that NOAA uses for identifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific. The ONI is defined as the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 50N-50S, 120W-170W). Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5 anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Niña) events. The threshold is further broken down into: Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly)Moderate (1.0 to 1.4)Strong (1.5 to 1.9)Very Strong (≥ 2.0) For the purpose of this blog post, for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods. Here's an analysis of the 26 cold winters by ENSO state: Strong Nino: 0 of 26 (0%)Moderate Nino: 1 of 26 (4%)Weak Nino: 9 of 26 (35%)Neutral positive: 4 of 26 (15%)Neutral negative: 5 of 26 (19%)Weak Nina: 6 of 26 (23%)Moderate Nina: 1 of 26 (4%)Strong Nina: 0 of 26 (0%) Dec-Feb temperature anomalies during weak Nino's Notice that out of all the cold years, the majority of them occurred during weak Nino's (35%). Also notice that out of all of those cold winters, none of them occurred with a strong Nino or a strong Nina. The map on the left depicts the temperature anomalies that occurred during a Weak Nino. Due to the data only going back to 1948, all of the years are not depicted, but this will give you a good idea. As you can see, a weak Nino is what we'd like to see come Dec-Feb. If the current one stays too strong, it could severely limit our cold this winter based on past analogs. keep in mind, Larry's study is based on temperatures, not precipitation. ​ ​Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) +PDO or Warm State -PDO or Cold State PDO Index (http://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php) While it's easy to look at one specific weather pattern, there are many factors that determine how a winter will turn out, with the ENSO state being just one of those. But there are other teleconnections and long term patterns that also have an effect on our winter weather, and they all work in tandem with each other. Graphs and Charts Now we are going to turn our attention to the PDO state or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. First, the definition from the National Center for Environmental Information: "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in the Pacific Basin and the North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average sea level pressures over the North Pacific, the PDO has a negative value (Courtesy of Mantua, 1999). " Here's an analysis of the cold 26 winters by DJF averaged PDO status:+ PDO: 18 of 58 (31%)- PDO: 8 of 57 (14%)Again, much as it was with weak Nino's, many of our coldest winters occurred during a + PDO state, while only 8 out of 57 occurred during a negative PDO state. ​ Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) In order for us to get long lasting cold air that stays locked in, we need some blocking. There are several teleconnection patterns that aid in developing this blocking, one of which is the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO. Graphs and Charts Negative NAO (-NAO) Positive NAO (+NAO) Here's the definition of the NAO: "The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is part of the Arctic Oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity." Strong positive phases of the NAO tend to be associated with above-average temperatures in the eastern United States and across northern Europe and below-average temperatures in Greenland and oftentimes across southern Europe and the Middle East. They are also associated with above-average precipitation over northern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and below-average precipitation over southern and central Europe. Opposite patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are typically observed during strong negative phases of the NAO. For us, negative is what we're looking for in the winter. Let's take a look at the analysis of the cold 26 Dec-Feb winters by averaged NAO status: – NAO: 19 of 48 (40%)+ NAO: 7 of 67 (10%)Again, a large number of the cold winters had a negative NAO. ​​ Piecing It All Together... Now let's take the combination of the ENSO state (in our case, Nino), and factor in the PDO and NAO and let's see what we get. Here's the analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status:+ PDO/-NAO: 12 of 25 (46%)- PDO/-NAO: 7 of 23 (30%) (all 7 had (PDO – NAO) > 0)+ PDO/+NAO: 6 of 33 (18%)- PDO/+NAO: 1 of 34 (3%)Things start to change a little. Obviously, the combination of +PDO and -NAO are the best combination, and that makes perfect sense. During the positive phase of the PDO, the wintertime Aleutian low is deepened and shifted southward, warm/humid air is advected along the North American west coast and temperatures are higher than usual from the Pacific Northwest to Alaska but below normal in Mexico and the southeastern United States. Add the effects of the blocking provided by the NAO and you lock in the cold air instead of having it rush out to sea. Now, let's really lay it out. Here's "Brother Larry's" analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of ENSO state and Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status: Strong Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 6 (0%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 1 (0%) Moderate Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 2 (50%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 2 (0%) Weak Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 6 of 7 (86%)-PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%)+PDO/+NAO: 1 of 2 (50%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 4 (0%) Neutral Positive:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 4 (50%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%) Neutral Negative:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 3 (33%)-PDO/-NAO: 2 of 7 (29%)+PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%) Weak Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%)-PDO/-NAO: 3 of 5 (60%)+PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%) Moderate Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%) Strong Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 2 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 6 (0%) Conclusions... Weak Nino’s give the highest percentage chance for cold of any of the ENSO states by far (with weak Nina’s second); however, a combo of -PDO/+NAO seems to make it difficult even for weak Nino’s.A very impressive 13 of 16 (81%) of the aggregate of weak Nino's and weak Nina's with -NAO were cold.Don't ever bet on cold with either a strong Nino or a strong Nina since none of the 23 were cold.+PDO about doubles the percent chance for cold versus a -PDO.A -NAO more than doubles the percentage chance for cold versus a +NAO and a somewhat higher chance than a +PDO gives. So, I give small edge to –NAO over a +PDO regarding cold prospects. Regardless, both are very important.A +PDO/-NAO combo gives close to twice the percentage chance for cold versus the percentage chance for all PDO/NAO combos in the aggregate.A -PDO/-NAO is the next best combo for cold prospects, but mainly if NAO is more negative than PDO.Don't ever bet on cold with a combination of -PDO/+NAO, since only 1 out of 34 were cold.If there is a +PDO, the chances for a –NAO appear to be high for only weak to moderate Nino’s. The chances appear to only be about 50-50 for strong Nino’s. For neutral ENSO, the chances seem to be surprisingly low (partial negative correlation suggested).The best shot at a +PDO/-NAO combo appears to be with a weak to moderate Nino's. On the other hand, only 3 of 34 (9%) Nina’s had a +PDO/-NAO.A pretty high 17 of 34 (50%) Nina’s had a –PDO/+NAO.A +PDO is difficult with a moderate to strong Nina. Only one out of 16 (6%) had one.A –PDO seems rather difficult with a strong Nino, only 2 out of 15 (13%) had one.+PDO and –PDO winters are about evenly split. But +NAO winters have been a bit more common than -NAO in long term: 58% vs. 42%. Winter Precipitation Regarding wintry precipitation for Atlanta, when looking at the three standalone super Nino's (1972-1973, 1982 -1983, 1997-1998) as well as the six strong to super strong 2nd year Nino's (1877-1888, 1888-1889, 1896-1887, 1905-1906, 1940-1941, 1987-1988), Atlanta more often than not, had one major winter storm, but not always:1877-1888: 2.5" 1/3/1878 & a non-major freezing rain followed on 1/9/18781888-1889: 6" 2/21/18891896-1967: 6.2" 12/2/18961905-1906: 6.2" for the season including 3.5"+ major 1/26/1906, measurable snow D, J, and F1940 -1941: only T of snow1972 -1973: historic ZR 1/7-8/1973, which included 1" mainly ice pellets; (also, historic snow hit central GA in Feb though Atlanta missed that one)1982 -1983: 10.3" S/IP for season including 7.9" 3/24/1983 (heaviest since 1940) and measurable snow J, F, and M1987- 1988: 4.2" of mainly IP 1/7/1988 (would have been ~8" if all snow)1997- 1998: only 0.6" 12/29/1997 View the full article

The main focus on this article is not to make a winter forecast, but to explore what effects El Nino's and teleconnections have on winter weather across the southeast. One of the main sources of data in this report comes from a weather friend of mine that I call "Brother Larry". Larry would prefer to remain anonymous, so from here on out you'll hear me refer to Larry as "Brother Larry". :-) Larry has a wealth of information about the weather history in Georgia, and I'll be using a lot of his findings to help give you an idea how this winter may turn out, based on the environment created by the El Nino, as well as several other factors. Again, this data is based on analog years, or those years that most closely identify with the current patterns, so keep that in mind. Analog's are not perfect, but they do give us a very good idea about how things have happened in the past and how they may happen again in the future. Again, almost all of the text below (other than a few of my own edits and additions) is from Larry, and he gets all the credit for the research and stats. ​ ENSO and Southeast US Winters This data was compiled by taking a list of 26 “cold” US winters (Dec/Jan/Feb) since 1894 -1895 (i.e., the coldest 23%) for the eastern third of the US. This requires solid, widespread, below normal anomalies, and requires the southeast to be pretty chilly itself. The two maps to the right were created with data from the list of years below, but that dataset only goes back to 1948, so the maps I'm displaying are not 100% complete with the years in the list. Here's the list of those winters, and you can see the years I used on the maps themselves. Also, Larry's 26 coldest winters study was done the better part of 10 years back, since then, it is possible that some of 09, 10, 13, 14, etc. could be added, although he is not reassessing those now. 2002 - 20031995 - 19961993 - 19941981 - 19821980 - 19811978 - 19791977 - 19781976 - 19771969 - 19701968 - 19691967 - 19681963 - 19641962 - 19631960 - 19611947 - 19481939 - 19401935 - 19361917 - 19181911 - 19121909 - 19101904 - 19051903 - 19041901 - 19021900 - 19011898 - 18991894 - 1895 Temperature Anomalies Precipitation Nino Base State ENSO Regions ONI Chart from Golden Gate Weather Services - http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.png Forecast So now that we have our list of base years, let's look at the base Nino state for those winters. Before we can do that, we need to take a look at the various Nino/Nina classifications. Graphs and Charts The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the standard that NOAA uses for identifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific. The ONI is defined as the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 50N-50S, 120W-170W). Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5 anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Niña) events. The threshold is further broken down into: Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly)Moderate (1.0 to 1.4)Strong (1.5 to 1.9)Very Strong (≥ 2.0) For the purpose of this blog post, for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods. Here's an analysis of the 26 cold winters by ENSO state: Strong Nino: 0 of 26 (0%)Moderate Nino: 1 of 26 (4%)Weak Nino: 9 of 26 (35%)Neutral positive: 4 of 26 (15%)Neutral negative: 5 of 26 (19%)Weak Nina: 6 of 26 (23%)Moderate Nina: 1 of 26 (4%)Strong Nina: 0 of 26 (0%) Dec-Feb temperature anomalies during weak Nino's Notice that out of all the cold years, the majority of them occurred during weak Nino's (35%). Also notice that out of all of those cold winters, none of them occurred with a strong Nino or a strong Nina. The map on the left depicts the temperature anomalies that occurred during a Weak Nino. Due to the data only going back to 1948, all of the years are not depicted, but this will give you a good idea. As you can see, a weak Nino is what we'd like to see come Dec-Feb. If the current one stays too strong, it could severely limit our cold this winter based on past analogs. keep in mind, Larry's study is based on temperatures, not precipitation. ​ ​Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) +PDO or Warm State -PDO or Cold State PDO Index (http://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php) While it's easy to look at one specific weather pattern, there are many factors that determine how a winter will turn out, with the ENSO state being just one of those. But there are other teleconnections and long term patterns that also have an effect on our winter weather, and they all work in tandem with each other. Graphs and Charts Now we are going to turn our attention to the PDO state or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. First, the definition from the National Center for Environmental Information: "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in the Pacific Basin and the North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average sea level pressures over the North Pacific, the PDO has a negative value (Courtesy of Mantua, 1999). " Here's an analysis of the cold 26 winters by DJF averaged PDO status:+ PDO: 18 of 58 (31%)- PDO: 8 of 57 (14%)Again, much as it was with weak Nino's, many of our coldest winters occurred during a + PDO state, while only 8 out of 57 occurred during a negative PDO state. ​ Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) In order for us to get long lasting cold air that stays locked in, we need some blocking. There are several teleconnection patterns that aid in developing this blocking, one of which is the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO. Graphs and Charts Negative NAO (-NAO) Positive NAO (+NAO) Here's the definition of the NAO: "The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is part of the Arctic Oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity." Strong positive phases of the NAO tend to be associated with above-average temperatures in the eastern United States and across northern Europe and below-average temperatures in Greenland and oftentimes across southern Europe and the Middle East. They are also associated with above-average precipitation over northern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and below-average precipitation over southern and central Europe. Opposite patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are typically observed during strong negative phases of the NAO. For us, negative is what we're looking for in the winter. Let's take a look at the analysis of the cold 26 Dec-Feb winters by averaged NAO status: – NAO: 19 of 48 (40%)+ NAO: 7 of 67 (10%)Again, a large number of the cold winters had a negative NAO. ​​ Piecing It All Together... Now let's take the combination of the ENSO state (in our case, Nino), and factor in the PDO and NAO and let's see what we get. Here's the analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status:+ PDO/-NAO: 12 of 25 (46%)- PDO/-NAO: 7 of 23 (30%) (all 7 had (PDO – NAO) > 0)+ PDO/+NAO: 6 of 33 (18%)- PDO/+NAO: 1 of 34 (3%)Things start to change a little. Obviously, the combination of +PDO and -NAO are the best combination, and that makes perfect sense. During the positive phase of the PDO, the wintertime Aleutian low is deepened and shifted southward, warm/humid air is advected along the North American west coast and temperatures are higher than usual from the Pacific Northwest to Alaska but below normal in Mexico and the southeastern United States. Add the effects of the blocking provided by the NAO and you lock in the cold air instead of having it rush out to sea. Now, let's really lay it out. Here's "Brother Larry's" analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of ENSO state and Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status: Strong Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 6 (0%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 1 (0%) Moderate Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 2 (50%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 2 (0%) Weak Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 6 of 7 (86%)-PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%)+PDO/+NAO: 1 of 2 (50%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 4 (0%) Neutral Positive:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 4 (50%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%) Neutral Negative:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 3 (33%)-PDO/-NAO: 2 of 7 (29%)+PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%) Weak Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%)-PDO/-NAO: 3 of 5 (60%)+PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%) Moderate Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%) Strong Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/-NAO: 0 of 2 (0%)+PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A)-PDO/+NAO: 0 of 6 (0%) Conclusions... Weak Nino’s give the highest percentage chance for cold of any of the ENSO states by far (with weak Nina’s second); however, a combo of -PDO/+NAO seems to make it difficult even for weak Nino’s.A very impressive 13 of 16 (81%) of the aggregate of weak Nino's and weak Nina's with -NAO were cold.Don't ever bet on cold with either a strong Nino or a strong Nina since none of the 23 were cold.+PDO about doubles the percent chance for cold versus a -PDO.A -NAO more than doubles the percentage chance for cold versus a +NAO and a somewhat higher chance than a +PDO gives. So, I give small edge to –NAO over a +PDO regarding cold prospects. Regardless, both are very important.A +PDO/-NAO combo gives close to twice the percentage chance for cold versus the percentage chance for all PDO/NAO combos in the aggregate.A -PDO/-NAO is the next best combo for cold prospects, but mainly if NAO is more negative than PDO.Don't ever bet on cold with a combination of -PDO/+NAO, since only 1 out of 34 were cold.If there is a +PDO, the chances for a –NAO appear to be high for only weak to moderate Nino’s. The chances appear to only be about 50-50 for strong Nino’s. For neutral ENSO, the chances seem to be surprisingly low (partial negative correlation suggested).The best shot at a +PDO/-NAO combo appears to be with a weak to moderate Nino's. On the other hand, only 3 of 34 (9%) Nina’s had a +PDO/-NAO.A pretty high 17 of 34 (50%) Nina’s had a –PDO/+NAO.A +PDO is difficult with a moderate to strong Nina. Only one out of 16 (6%) had one.A –PDO seems rather difficult with a strong Nino, only 2 out of 15 (13%) had one.+PDO and –PDO winters are about evenly split. But +NAO winters have been a bit more common than -NAO in long term: 58% vs. 42%. Winter Precipitation Regarding wintry precipitation for Atlanta, when looking at the three standalone super Nino's (1972-1973, 1982 -1983, 1997-1998) as well as the six strong to super strong 2nd year Nino's (1877-1888, 1888-1889, 1896-1887, 1905-1906, 1940-1941, 1987-1988), Atlanta more often than not, had one major winter storm, but not always:1877-1888: 2.5" 1/3/1878 & a non-major freezing rain followed on 1/9/18781888-1889: 6" 2/21/18891896-1967: 6.2" 12/2/18961905-1906: 6.2" for the season including 3.5"+ major 1/26/1906, measurable snow D, J, and F1940 -1941: only T of snow1972 -1973: historic ZR 1/7-8/1973, which included 1" mainly ice pellets; (also, historic snow hit central GA in Feb though Atlanta missed that one)1982 -1983: 10.3" S/IP for season including 7.9" 3/24/1983 (heaviest since 1940) and measurable snow J, F, and M1987- 1988: 4.2" of mainly IP 1/7/1988 (would have been ~8" if all snow)1997- 1998: only 0.6" 12/29/1997 View the full article

The main focus on this article is not to make a winter forecast, but to explore what effects El Nino's and teleconnections have on winter weather across the southeast. One of the main sources of data in this report comes from a weather friend of mine that I call "Brother Larry". Larry would prefer to remain anonymous, so from here on out you'll hear me refer to Larry as "Brother Larry". 🙂 Larry has a wealth of information about the weather history in Georgia, and I'll be using a lot of his findings to help give you an idea how this winter may turn out, based on the environment created by the El Nino, as well as several other factors. Again, this data is based on analog years, or those years that most closely identify with the current patterns, so keep that in mind. Analog's are not perfect, but they do give us a very good idea about how things have happened in the past and how they may happen again in the future. Again, almost all of the text below (other than a few of my own edits and additions) is from Larry, and he gets all the credit for the research and stats. This data was compiled by taking a list of 26 “cold” US winters (Dec/Jan/Feb) since 1894 -1895 (i.e., the coldest 23%) for the eastern third of the US. This requires solid, widespread, below normal anomalies, and requires the southeast to be pretty chilly itself. The two maps to the right were created with data from the list of years below, but that dataset only goes back to 1948, so the maps I'm displaying are not 100% complete with the years in the list. Here's the list of those winters, and you can see the years I used on the maps themselves. Also, Larry's 26 coldest winters study was done the better part of 10 years back, since then, it is possible that some of 09, 10, 13, 14, etc. could be added, although he is not reassessing those now. 2002 - 2003 1995 - 1996 1993 - 1994 1981 - 1982 1980 - 1981 1978 - 1979 1977 - 1978 1976 - 1977 1969 - 1970 1968 - 1969 1967 - 1968 1963 - 1964 1962 - 1963 1960 - 1961 1947 - 1948 1939 - 1940 1935 - 1936 1917 - 1918 1911 - 1912 1909 - 1910 1904 - 1905 1903 - 1904 1901 - 1902 1900 - 1901 1898 - 1899 1894 - 1895 Temperature Anomalies Precipitation Nino Base State ENSO Regions ONI Chart from Golden Gate Weather Services - Forecast So now that we have our list of base years, let's look at the base Nino state for those winters. Before we can do that, we need to take a look at the various Nino/Nina classifications. Graphs and Charts The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the standard that NOAA uses for identifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific. The ONI is defined as the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 50N-50S, 120W-170W). Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5 anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Niña) events. The threshold is further broken down into: Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly) Moderate (1.0 to 1.4) Strong (1.5 to 1.9) Very Strong (≥ 2.0) For the purpose of this blog post, for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods. Here's an analysis of the 26 cold winters by ENSO state: Strong Nino: 0 of 26 (0%) Moderate Nino: 1 of 26 (4%) Weak Nino: 9 of 26 (35%) Neutral positive: 4 of 26 (15%) Neutral negative: 5 of 26 (19%) Weak Nina: 6 of 26 (23%) Moderate Nina: 1 of 26 (4%) Strong Nina: 0 of 26 (0%) Dec-Feb temperature anomalies during weak Nino's Notice that out of all the cold years, the majority of them occurred during weak Nino's (35%). Also notice that out of all of those cold winters, none of them occurred with a strong Nino or a strong Nina. The map on the left depicts the temperature anomalies that occurred during a Weak Nino. Due to the data only going back to 1948, all of the years are not depicted, but this will give you a good idea. As you can see, a weak Nino is what we'd like to see come Dec-Feb. If the current one stays too strong, it could severely limit our cold this winter based on past analogs. keep in mind, Larry's study is based on temperatures, not precipitation. Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) +PDO or Warm State -PDO or Cold State PDO Index (http://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php) While it's easy to look at one specific weather pattern, there are many factors that determine how a winter will turn out, with the ENSO state being just one of those. But there are other teleconnections and long term patterns that also have an effect on our winter weather, and they all work in tandem with each other. Graphs and Charts Now we are going to turn our attention to the PDO state or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. First, the definition from the National Center for Environmental Information: "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in the Pacific Basin and the North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average sea level pressures over the North Pacific, the PDO has a negative value (Courtesy of Mantua, 1999). " Here's an analysis of the cold 26 winters by DJF averaged PDO status: + PDO: 18 of 58 (31%) - PDO: 8 of 57 (14%) Again, much as it was with weak Nino's, many of our coldest winters occurred during a + PDO state, while only 8 out of 57 occurred during a negative PDO state. Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) In order for us to get long lasting cold air that stays locked in, we need some blocking. There are several teleconnection patterns that aid in developing this blocking, one of which is the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO. Graphs and Charts Negative NAO (-NAO) Positive NAO (+NAO) Here's the definition of the NAO: "The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is part of the Arctic Oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity." Strong positive phases of the NAO tend to be associated with above-average temperatures in the eastern United States and across northern Europe and below-average temperatures in Greenland and oftentimes across southern Europe and the Middle East. They are also associated with above-average precipitation over northern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and below-average precipitation over southern and central Europe. Opposite patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are typically observed during strong negative phases of the NAO. For us, negative is what we're looking for in the winter. Let's take a look at the analysis of the cold 26 Dec-Feb winters by averaged NAO status: – NAO: 19 of 48 (40%) + NAO: 7 of 67 (10%) Again, a large number of the cold winters had a negative NAO. Piecing It All Together... Now let's take the combination of the ENSO state (in our case, Nino), and factor in the PDO and NAO and let's see what we get. Here's the analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status: + PDO/-NAO: 12 of 25 (46%) - PDO/-NAO: 7 of 23 (30%) (all 7 had (PDO – NAO) > 0) + PDO/+NAO: 6 of 33 (18%) - PDO/+NAO: 1 of 34 (3%) Things start to change a little. Obviously, the combination of +PDO and -NAO are the best combination, and that makes perfect sense. During the positive phase of the PDO, the wintertime Aleutian low is deepened and shifted southward, warm/humid air is advected along the North American west coast and temperatures are higher than usual from the Pacific Northwest to Alaska but below normal in Mexico and the southeastern United States. Add the effects of the blocking provided by the NAO and you lock in the cold air instead of having it rush out to sea. Now, let's really lay it out. Here's "Brother Larry's" analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of ENSO state and Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status: Strong Nino: +PDO/-NAO: 0 of 6 (0%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 1 (0%) Moderate Nino: +PDO/-NAO: 1 of 2 (50%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 2 (0%) Weak Nino: +PDO/-NAO: 6 of 7 (86%) -PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%) +PDO/+NAO: 1 of 2 (50%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 4 (0%) Neutral Positive: +PDO/-NAO: 2 of 4 (50%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%) Neutral Negative: +PDO/-NAO: 1 of 3 (33%) -PDO/-NAO: 2 of 7 (29%) +PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%) Weak Nina: +PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%) -PDO/-NAO: 3 of 5 (60%) +PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%) Moderate Nina: +PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%) Strong Nina: +PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 2 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 6 (0%) Conclusions... Weak Nino’s give the highest percentage chance for cold of any of the ENSO states by far (with weak Nina’s second); however, a combo of -PDO/+NAO seems to make it difficult even for weak Nino’s. A very impressive 13 of 16 (81%) of the aggregate of weak Nino's and weak Nina's with -NAO were cold. Don't ever bet on cold with either a strong Nino or a strong Nina since none of the 23 were cold. +PDO about doubles the percent chance for cold versus a -PDO. A -NAO more than doubles the percentage chance for cold versus a +NAO and a somewhat higher chance than a +PDO gives. So, I give small edge to –NAO over a +PDO regarding cold prospects. Regardless, both are very important. A +PDO/-NAO combo gives close to twice the percentage chance for cold versus the percentage chance for all PDO/NAO combos in the aggregate. A -PDO/-NAO is the next best combo for cold prospects, but mainly if NAO is more negative than PDO. Don't ever bet on cold with a combination of -PDO/+NAO, since only 1 out of 34 were cold. If there is a +PDO, the chances for a –NAO appear to be high for only weak to moderate Nino’s. The chances appear to only be about 50-50 for strong Nino’s. For neutral ENSO, the chances seem to be surprisingly low (partial negative correlation suggested). The best shot at a +PDO/-NAO combo appears to be with a weak to moderate Nino's. On the other hand, only 3 of 34 (9%) Nina’s had a +PDO/-NAO. A pretty high 17 of 34 (50%) Nina’s had a –PDO/+NAO. A +PDO is difficult with a moderate to strong Nina. Only one out of 16 (6%) had one. A –PDO seems rather difficult with a strong Nino, only 2 out of 15 (13%) had one. +PDO and –PDO winters are about evenly split. But +NAO winters have been a bit more common than -NAO in long term: 58% vs. 42%. Winter Precipitation Regarding wintry precipitation for Atlanta, when looking at the three standalone super Nino's (1972-1973, 1982 -1983, 1997-1998) as well as the six strong to super strong 2nd year Nino's (1877-1888, 1888-1889, 1896-1887, 1905-1906, 1940-1941, 1987-1988), Atlanta more often than not, had one major winter storm, but not always: 1877-1888: 2.5" 1/3/1878 & a non-major freezing rain followed on 1/9/1878 1888-1889: 6" 2/21/1889 1896-1967: 6.2" 12/2/1896 1905-1906: 6.2" for the season including 3.5"+ major 1/26/1906, measurable snow D, J, and F 1940 -1941: only T of snow 1972 -1973: historic ZR 1/7-8/1973, which included 1" mainly ice pellets; (also, historic snow hit central GA in Feb though Atlanta missed that one) 1982 -1983: 10.3" S/IP for season including 7.9" 3/24/1983 (heaviest since 1940) and measurable snow J, F, and M 1987- 1988: 4.2" of mainly IP 1/7/1988 (would have been ~8" if all snow) 1997- 1998: only 0.6" 12/29/1997 View the full article

I wanted to get this blog post over here for all to read, but this is the quickest way. http://blog.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/a-look-at-the-effects-of-ninos-on-southeast-winters

Today in Weather History for March 19 March 19, 1935 Suffocating dust storms occurred frequently in southeastern Colorado between the 12th and the 25th of the month. Six people died, and many livestock starved or suffocated. Up to six feet of dust covered the ground. Schools were closed, and many rural homes were deserted by tenants. (The Weather Channel) March 19, 1950 Timberline Lodge reported 246 inches of snow on the ground, a record for the state of Oregon. (The Weather Channel) March 19, 1956 The second heavy snowstorm in just three days hit Boston. Nearby Blue Hill received 19.5 inches contributing to their snowiest March of record. (David Ludlum) March 19, 1987 A storm in the western U.S. produced rain and snow from the northern and central Pacific coast to the northern and central Rockies. Heavier snowfall totals included 13 inches at Clear Creek UT, 12 inches at Snow Camp CA and Glacier Park MT, and 10 inches at Kayenta AZ. Wind gusts reached 54 mph at Winslow AZ. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 19, 1988 Seven cities in California and Nevada reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80's and lower 90's. Los Angeles CA reported a record high of 89 degrees. Five cities in south central Texas reported record lows, including El Paso, with a reading of 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) March 19, 1989 Six cities reported new record low temperatures for the date as cold arctic air settled into the Upper Midwest for Palm Sunday, including Marquette MI with a reading of 11 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) March 19, 1990 Rather wintry weather in the eastern U.S. replaced the 80 degree weather of the previous week. Freezing temperatures were reported in northern sections of the Gulf Coast States, and snow began to whiten the Northern and Central Appalachians. Up to eight inches of snow was reported in western Virginia. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) March 19, 2001 A late winter storm brought snowfall to the north Georgia mountains and a mix of sleet and snow from the northern Atlanta suburbs eastward to Athens. Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches were common in the higher elevations in Murray, Gilmer, Fannin, and Towns Counties. (NWS Atlanta) March 19, 2003 Denver digs out from the second-biggest snowstorm in the city's history. Almost two and a half feet of wet snow over 36 hours shuts down the city. The month ends as Denver's snowiest March on record. Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

Today in Weather History for March 18 March 18, 1925 The great Tri-State Tornado occurred, the most deadly tornado in U.S. history. The tornado claimed 695 lives (including 234 at Murphysboro IL and 148 at West Frankfort IL), and caused seventeen million dollars property damage. It cut a swath of destruction 219 miles long and as much as a mile wide from east central Missouri to southern Indiana between 1 PM and 4 PM. The tornado leveled a school in West Frankfort IL, and picked up sixteen students setting them down unharmed 150 yards away. Seven other tornadoes claimed an additional 97 lives that day. (David Ludlum) March 18, 1971 High winds accompanied a low pressure system from the Rocky Mountains to the Great Lakes. Winds gusted to 100 mph at Hastings NE, and reached 115 mph at Hays KS. High winds caused two million dollars damage in Kansas. Fire burned 50,000 forest acres in eastern Oklahoma. (17th-19th) (The Weather Channel) March 18, 1987 A storm in the central U.S. produced up to 10 inches of snow in western Nebraska, and up to six inches of rain in eastern sections of the state. The heavy rains pushed the Elkhorn River out of its banks, submerging the streets of Inman under three feet of water. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 18, 1988 Light rain and snow prevailed east of the Mississippi River. Fair weather prevailed west of the Mississippi. (The National Weather Summary) March 18, 1989 A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy rain in California, with heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada Range. Venado CA was drenched with 5.40 inches of rain in 24 hours. A dozen cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Baltimore MD with a reading of 82 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 18, 1990 Heavy rain caused extensive flooding of rivers and streams in Georgia, with total damage running well into the millions. Flooding also claimed six lives. Nearly seven inches of rain caused 2.5 million dollars damage around Columbus, and up to nine inches of rain was reported over the northern Kinchafoonee Basin in Georgia. (Storm Data) March 18, 2013 A strong upper level system combined with a moist south to southeast flow to result in widespread severe weather that included damaging winds, large hail and a tornado. An EF-2 tornado tracked across Meriwhether and Pike Counties during the evening. With this tornado, two out-buildings and one barn were destroyed. Thousands of trees were snapped or blown over and a few of these trees fell on homes. For more information, visit the event summary. (NWS Atlanta) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

My parents view looking over Sarasota Bay Today in Weather History for March 17 March 17, 1892 A winter storm in southwestern and central Tennessee produced 26 inches of snow at Riddleton, and 18.5 inches at Memphis. It was the deepest snow of record for those areas. (David Ludlum) March 17, 1895 The mercury fell to a record low of 23°F for this date in Atlanta. (NWS Atlanta) March 17, 1906 The temperature at Snake River, WY, dipped to 50 degrees below zero, a record for the U.S. for the month of March. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) March 17, 1945 A record high temperature of 86°F was set in Atlanta for this date. (NWS Atlanta) March 17, 1987 A powerful spring storm produced severe thunderstorms over the Central Gulf Coast States, and heavy snow in the High Plains Region. A tornado caused three million dollars damage at Natchez MS, and six inches of rain in five hours caused five million dollars damage at Vicksburg MS. Cactus TX received 10 inches of snow. Western Kansas reported blizzard conditions. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 17, 1988 A winter storm produced heavy snow from the northeast Texas panhandle to the Ozark area of Missouri and Arkansas. Up to fifteen inches of snow was reported in Oklahoma and Texas. Snowfall totals in the Ozark area ranged up to 14 inches, with unofficial reports as high as 22 inches around Harrison AR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 17, 1989 Strong northerly winds ushered snow and arctic cold into the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 58 mph at Sydney NE and Scottsbluff NE, Cadillac MI received 12 inches of snow, and International Falls MN reported a record low of 22 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 17, 1990 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow moving cold front produced torrential rains across parts of the southeastern U.S. over a two day period. Flooding claimed the lives of at least 22 persons, including thirteen in Alabama. Up to 16 inches of rain deluged southern Alabama, with 10.63 inches reported at Mobile AL in 24 hours. The town of Elba AL was flooded with 6 to 12 feet of water causing more than 25 million dollars damage, and total flood damage across Alabama exceeded 100 million dollars. Twenty-six counties in the state were declared disaster areas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

Today in Weather History for March 16 March 16, 1942 Two tornadoes, 24 minutes apart, struck Baldwin, MS, resulting in 65 deaths. (David Ludlum) March 16, 1975 A single storm brought 119 inches of snow to Crater Lake, O,R establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel) March 16, 1986 A small but rare tornado touched down perilously close to Disneyland in Anaheim CA. (Storm Data) March 16, 1987 Softball size hail caused millions of dollars damage to automobiles at Del Rio TX. Three persons were injured when hailstones crashed through a shopping mall skylight. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel) March 16, 1988 A winter storm produced heavy snow in the Central Rockies. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Centerville UT. Eighteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, including Tallahassee FL with a reading of 24 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) March 16, 1989 A winter storm brought heavy snow and high winds to the southwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Lovelock NV, Salt Lake City UT, and Fort Carson CO. Snow fell at a rate of three inches per hour in the Lake Tahoe area of Nevada. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 16, 1990 Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced large hail and damaging winds from northwest Florida to western South Carolina. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 75 mph at Floridatown FL. Sixteen cities across the northeastern quarter of the nation reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 78 degrees at Burlington VT smashed their previous record for the date by 23 degrees. New York City reported a record high of 82 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

March 15, 1941 The most severe blizzard in modern history struck North Dakota and Minnesota. The blizzard hit on a Saturday night while many are traveling, and thus claimed 71 lives. Winds gusted to 75 mph at Duluth MN, and reached 85 mph at Grand Forks ND. Snow drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Minnesota. A cold front traveling 30 mph crossed Minnesota in just seven hours. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) March 15, 1987 A winter storm in the western U.S. produced heavy snow in central Nevada, with 23 inches reported at Austin. High winds raked the desert areas of southern California and southern Arizona. Winds gusted to 59 mph at Douglas AZ. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 15, 1988 More than one hundred hours of continuous snow finally came to an end at Marquette MI, during which time the city was buried under 43 inches of snow. Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S., with forty-one cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 15, 1989 Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from Alabama to the Middle Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 at Virginia Beach VA. Low pressure in southeastern Ontario produced high winds in the northeastern U.S. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Saint Albins VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 15, 1990 Low pressure crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley produced high winds from the Northern and Central Plains to the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. Winds gusted to 73 mph at Iowa City IA, and wind gusts reached 79 mph at Waukesha WI. Winds of 75 mph were reported around Rapid City SD, with gusts to 100 mph. Up to a foot of snow was reported in western Iowa, western Minnesota, and extreme eastern North Dakota. Blizzard conditions were reported in northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 15, 2008 An EF-3 tornado touched down in extreme north central Polk County, just east of the town of Seney near the Floyd County line. The tornado then tracked approximately 16 miles across extreme northeast Polk County, extreme southeast Floyd County, and into southern Bartow County before lifting southwest of Cartersville. The tornado had a maximum path width of a 1/2 mile. In Polk County, four homes were destroyed, two sustained major damage, five had minor damage, and 5 others were minimally impacted. One fatality and one injury occurred where a home was destroyed. (NWS Atlanta) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

March 14, 1870 The term blizzard was first applied to a storm which produced heavy snow and high winds in Minnesota and Iowa. (David Ludlum) March 14, 1944 A single storm brought a record 21.6 inches of snow to Salt Lake City UT. (The Weather Channel) March 14, 1960 Northern Georgia was between snowstorms. Gainesville GA received 17 inches of snow during the month, and reported at least a trace of snow on the ground 22 days in March. Snow was on roofs in Hartwell GA from the 2nd to the 29th. (The Weather Channel) March 14, 1987 A powerful storm in the western U.S. produced 15 inches of snow in the Lake Tahoe Basin of Nevada, and wind gusts to 50 mph at Las Vegas NV. Thunderstorms in the Sacramento Valley of California spawned a tornado which hit a turkey farm near Corning. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 14, 1988 Squalls in the Great Lakes Region continued to produce heavy snow in northwest Wisconsin and Upper Michigan, and produced up to 14 inches of snow in northeast Ohio. Poplar WI reported 27 inches of snow in two days. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 14, 1989 High winds in Colorado and Wyoming gusted above 120 mph at Horsetooth Heights CO. High winds in the Central Plains sharply reduced visibilities in blowing dust as far east as Kansas City MO. Winds gusting to 72 mph at Hill City KS reduced the visibility to a city block in blowing dust. Soil erosion in northwest Kansas damaged nearly five million acres of wheat. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 14, 1990 Fifty-three cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s from the Gulf coast to the Great Lakes Region. Charleston WV was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 89 degrees. It was the fourth of five consecutive days with record warm tempeatures for many cities in the eastern U.S. There were 283 daily record highs reported in the central and eastern U.S. during between the 11th and the 15th of March. (The National Weather Summary) March 14, 2007 The temperature in Concord, NH, reaches a record high of 74 degrees less than one week after a record low temperature of 7 degrees below zero on March 8, an 81 degree temperature swing in six days. March 4, 2008 An EF-2 tornado tracked through downtown Atlanta causing millions of dollars of damage to buildings, including several high rise business and hotel buildings. The tornado also resulted in one death and 30 injuries. The tornado touched down just west of downtown Atlanta and then tracked eastward to near the Georgia World Congress Center and the Georgia Dome where an SEC basketball conference was being held at the time. It then crossed the CNN Omni Hotel Complex and Phillips Arena, where an NBA basketball game was underway, and across the Equitable Bank Tower. It finally lifted as it went into extreme western DeKalb County. The tornado had a total path length of six miles and a maximum path width of 200 yards. For more information, click here. (NWS Atlanta) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

1993 Storm of The Century March 13, 1907 A storm produced a record 5.22 inches of rain in 24 hours at Cincinnati, OH. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel) March 13, 1951 The state of Iowa experienced a record snowstorm. The storm buried Iowa City under 27 inches of snow. (David Ludlum) March 13, 1977 Baltimore, MD, received an inch of rain in eight minutes. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) March 13, 1987 A winter storm produced heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California, and the Lake Tahoe area of Nevada. Mount Rose NV received 18 inches of new snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 13, 1988 Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Plateau Region to the Appalachians. Chadron NE, recently buried 33 inches of snow, was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 19 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) March 13, 1989 Residents of the southern U.S. viewed a once in a life-time display of the Northern Lights. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the southwestern U.S. The record high of 88 degrees at Tucson AZ was their seventh in a row. In southwest Texas, the temperature at Sanderson soared from 46 degrees at 8 AM to 90 degrees at 11 AM. (The National Weather Summary) March 13, 1990 Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northwest Texas to Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska during the day, and into the night. Severe thunderstorms spawned 59 tornadoes, including twenty-six strong or violent tornadoes, and there were about two hundred reports of large hail or damaging winds. There were forty-eight tornadoes in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa, and some of the tornadoes in those three states were the strongest of record for so early in the season, and for so far northwest in the United States. The most powerful tornado of the day was one which tore through the central Kansas community of Hesston. The tornado killed two persons, injured sixty others, and caused 22 million dollars along its 67-mile path. The tornado had a life span of two hours. Another tornado tracked 124 miles across southeastern Nebraska injuring eight persons and causing more than five million dollars damage March 13, 1993 The Superstorm of 1993 (also called the Storm of the Century) was one of the most intense mid-latitude cyclones ever observed over the Eastern United States. The storm will be remembered for its tremendous snowfall totals from Alabama through Maine, high winds all along the East coast, extreme coastal flooding along the Florida west coast, incredibly low barometric pressures across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, and for the unseasonably cold air that followed behind the storm. In terms of human impact the Superstorm of 1993 was more significant than most landfalling hurricanes or tornado outbreaks and ranks among the deadliest and most costly weather events of the 20th century. Event Summary can be found here: http://wx.northgeorgiawx.com/blogs/entry/143-march-11-15-1993-storm-of-the-century/ Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

If you were around here back on this date in 1993, you were waking up to one of the greatest storms to ever hit the US, the Storm of The Century. I had never been in a storm like this, so it made for a surreal experience for me, and unfortunately, I took ZERO pictures of the storm itself. I had a heavily wooded back yard, and I remember looking out over the yard while the storm was at its peak. The skies were VERY dark, darker than a normal thunderstorm, I'm guessing because of all of the thick snow that was falling. The winds were howling. I remember thinking this is what I had always dreamed of since I was a kid... when all of a sudden BOOM!!! The sky literally glowed! I'm assuming the eerie glow was because of all the heavy snow that was falling. It wasn't like a regular lightning flash nor was it like a regular clap of thunder. It was muted/muffled for sight and sound. Again... surreal is the only word I can think of that describes that experience. Thunderstorms with snow. I mean really, if you love snow, it doesn't get any better than this. 🙂 So... .let's take a look at this storm a little closer in case you missed it. From the NWS - (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/1993-snow-storm-of-the-century) Snowfall amounts were tremendous. Over the south, Birmingham received more than a foot of snow, the Atlanta airport received 4.5", while the northern suburbs received more than 10". The Atlanta NWS reported "Total snowfall by late evening averaged 18 to 24 inches from Rome to Clayton with near 30 inches from Fannin to Union Counties. Snow drifts up to 10 feet high were reported". I had around 10" at my house in Dacula, but it was hard to measure since the wind blew it around so much. Some additional totals from the Wilmington NC NWS office: Here's the summary from the Atlanta NWS office The impacts of the storm went far beyond the snow totals, with tornadoes, extreme winds, storm surge, and record cold. All in all, 318 people died as a result of the storm. The development of the storm shows how the perfect setup brought the perfect storm. James Spann - Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5 Here are some additional links to more information about the storm: Birmingham NWS - https://www.weather.gov/bmx/winter_stormofthecentury NWS Overview - https://www.weather.gov/media/ilm/Overview_Kocin_Schumacher_Morales_Uccelini.pdf Hourly Automated Surface Maps of the Superstorm of 1993 - http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/arch/cases/930312/sfc/xcn.rxml Various Still Satellite Images - http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/arch/cases/930312/sat/vis.rxml NC State Climate Office Storm Summary - http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/event_details?e=129 NCDC Technical Report - https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9301/tr9301.pdf Water Equivalent vs Rain Gauge Measurements from the March 1993 Blizzard - https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9303/tr9303.pdf Diagnostic Analysis - https://www.atmos.umd.edu/~dalin/huo-zhangyakum-superstorm-m95.pdf National Disaster Survey Report - https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/Superstorm_March-93.pdf "The 'Storm of the Century' or 'Superstorm' Derecho" - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/mar12-131993page.htm Wilmington NWS Summary - https://www.weather.gov/ilm/Superstorm93

Today in Weather History for March 12 March 12, 1888 A blizzard paralyzed southeastern New York State and western New England. The storm produced 58 inches of snow at Saratoga NY, and 50 inches at Middletown CT. The blizzard was followed by record cold temperatures, and the cold and snow claimed 400 lives. New York City received 20.9 inches of snow, Albany NY reported 46.7 inches. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) March 12, 1954 A blizzard raged from eastern Wyoming into the Black Hills of western South Dakota, while a severe ice storm was in progress from northeastern Nebraska to central Iowa. The ice storm isolated 153 towns in Iowa. Dust from the Great Plains caused brown snow, and hail and muddy rain over parts of Wisconsin and Michigan. (11th-13th) (The Weather Channel) March 12, 1967 A tremendous four day storm raged across California. Winds of 90 mph closed mountain passes, heavy rains flooded the lowlands, and in sixty hours Squaw Valley CA was buried under 96 inches (eight feet) of snow. (David Ludlum) March 12, 1987 Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S., with gale force winds along the Middle Atlantic Coast. A storm in the Pacific Northwest produced rain and gale force winds. Crescent City CA received 2.27 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 12, 1988 A powerful storm produced high winds and heavy snow in the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Winds gusting to 70 mph produced snow drifts six feet high in Minnesota, and sent twelve foot waves on Lake Superior over the breakwalls of the ship canal at Duluth MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 12, 1989 An early season heat wave continued in the southwestern and central U.S. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Wichita Falls TX, which six days earlier reported a record low of 8 above, reported a record high of 95 degrees. Childress TX was the first spot in the country in 1989 to hit the century mark. (The National Weather Summary) March 12, 1990 Unseasonably warm weather prevailed from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast, with afternoon highs in the 70's and 80's. Seventy-six cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Downtown Baltimore MD was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 95 degrees, which smashed their previous record for the date by nineteen degrees. Other record highs included 89 degrees at Washington D.C. and 90 degrees at Raleigh NC. (The National Weather Summary) March 12, 1993 An area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico began spreading snow across north Georgia late in the evening. The snow continued into the next day in what would eventually be called the 'Storm of the Century.' (NWS Atlanta) March 12, 2006 High school senior Matt Suter survives being blown 1,307 feet by a tornado. (The exact distance is determined by NWS GPS.) The twister rips open his grandmother's mobile home and tosses Suter into the night, launching him over a barbed wire fence and eventually depositing him on the soft grass in an open field. He suffers only a head wound from being hit by a lamp. The Weather Doctor's Diary Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

March 9, 1956 A whopping 367 inches of snow was measured on the ground at the Ranier Paradise Ranger Station in Washington. The snow depth was a state record and the second highest total of record for the continental U.S. (The Weather Channel) March 9, 1960 A winter storm produced a narrow band of heavy snow from north central Kentucky into Virginia and the mountains of North Carolina. Snowfall amounts ranged from 12 to 24 inches, with drifts up to eleven feet high in western Virginia. (David Ludlum) March 9, 1987 Gale force winds ushered arctic air into the north central U.S. Some places were 50 degrees colder than the previous day. Northeast winds, gusting to 60 mph, produced 8 to 15 foot waves on Lake Michigan causing more than a million dollars damage along the southeastern shoreline of Wisconsin. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 9, 1988 A cold front brought high winds to the southwestern U.S. Winds in the Las Vegas Valley of Nevada gusted to 70 mph, and one person was injured by a falling tree. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 9, 1989 Twenty-two cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. In New Mexico, afternoon highs of 72 at Los Alamos, 76 at Ruidoso, and 79 at Quemado, were records for March. (The National Weather Summary) March 9, 1990 Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in West Texas. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 71 mph at Lubbock, and golf ball size hail was reported at several other locations. Strong thunderstorm winds injured two persons north of the town of Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 9, 2004 In Villa Rica (Carroll County), a wildfire, initially started as a small grass fire, quickly spread out of control due to very dry conditions and northwest winds gusting to near 40 MPH. The fire destroyed three homes and damaged 12 others in two Villa Rica subdivisions, namely the South Villages and Carrington subdivisions. It required some 60 firefighters to get the blaze under control. No injuries were reported to residents or the firefighters. (NWS Atlanta) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

Today in Weather History for March 8 March 8, 1717 On Fishers Island in Long Island Sound, 1200 sheep were discovered to have been buried under a snow drift for four weeks. When finally uncovered, one hundred sheep were still alive. (The Weather Channel) March 8, 1909 The town of Brinkley AR was struck by a tornado which killed 49 persons and caused 600,000 dollars damage. The tornado, which was two-thirds of a mile in width, destroyed 860 buildings. Entire families were killed as houses were completely swept away by the tornado. Tornadoes killed 64 persons and injured 671 others in Dallas and Monroe counties during the Arkansas tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum) March 8, 1984 A freak thunder snowstorm produced high winds, vivid lightning, and up to seven inches of snow in the northern suburbs of Washington D.C. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) March 8, 1987 Thirty-two cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 71 degrees. Afternoon highs of 68 degrees at Houghton Lake MI and 72 degrees at Flint MI smashed their previous records for the date by fourteen degrees. (The National Weather Summary) March 8, 1988 A cold front brought wintry weather to the north central U.S. Snowfall totals in northwestern Minnesota ranged up to eight inches at Roseau and Hallock. Winds in South Dakota gusted to 61 mph at Brookings. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 8, 1989 While arctic cold gripped the northeastern U.S., unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southwestern states. Albany NY reported a record low of 2 degrees below zero. Tucson AZ reported a record high of 90 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) March 8, 1990 Late afternoon thunderstorms produced severe weather in east central Iowa and west central Illinois. Thunderstorms spawned a tornado south of Augusta IL which traveled 42 miles to Marbleton. Golf ball size hail was reported at Peoria IL and near Vermont IL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 8, 2004 The California coast warms up. San Francisco broke a 112-year record by reaching 82 degrees. Los Angeles soared to 93 degrees. March 8, 2005 A line of strong to severe thunderstorms affected the eastern portions of North and South Carolina, with wind damage and a few tornadoes reported. Winds gusted over 70 MPH with some of the stronger storms. March 8, 2008 Strong winds combined with the snow and cold temperatures to result in unseasonably winter-like conditions for March. Up to 2 inches of snow fell from Floyd County to Union County in extreme north Georgia with the maximum report of 2.5 inches in Fannin County. (NWS Atlanta) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

Today in Weather History for March 7 March 7, 1717 The Great Snow, a composite of four winter storms to hit the eastern U.S. in nine days, finally came to an end. Snow depths averaged 60 inches following the storm. Up to four feet of snow fell around Boston MA, and snow drifts 25 feet high were reported around Dorchester MA. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) March 7, 1932 A severe coastal storm set barometric pressure records from Virginia to New England. Block Island RI reported a barometric pressure reading of 28.20 inches. (David Ludlum) March 7, 1987 Forty-five cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Huron SD hit 80 degrees, and Pickstown SD reached 81 degrees. Rochester MN and Rockford IL smashed their previous record for the date by sixteen degrees. (The National Weather Summary) March 7, 1988 High winds along a sharp cold front ushered snow and arctic cold into the Central Rocky Mountain Region and the Northern Plains. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to sixteen inches at Brighton. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Rapid City SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 7, 1989 Blustery northwest winds ushered arctic cold into eastern U.S. Burlington VT reported a record low of 14 degrees below zero. Snow and ice over the Carolina's replaced the 80 degree weather of the previous day. High winds and heavy surf caused five million dollars damage along the North Carolina coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 7, 1990 A major ice storm left much of Iowa under a thick coat of ice. It was the worst ice storm in at least twenty-five years for Iowa, perhaps the worst of the century. Up to two inches of ice coated much of western and central Iowa, with three inches reported in Crawford County and Carroll County. As much as five inches of ice was reported on some electrical lines. The ice downed 78 towers in a 17-mile stretch of a high voltage feeder near Boone costing three electric utilities fifteen million dollars. Damage to trees was incredible, and clean-up costs alone ran into the millions. Total damage from the storm was more than fifty million dollars. (Storm Data) March 7, 1996 An F-1 tornado destroyed 2 brick homes and 7 mobile homes in Jefferson County. Fifteen other homes were heavily damaged and 10 others had minor damage. (NWS Atlanta) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

March 6, 1872 A cold wave hit the East coast sending the mercury plunging to 8 degrees below zero at Boston. It was the most severe March cold wave in modern history. (David Ludlum) March 6, 1900 A Chinook wind blowing down the slopes of the Rockies through Havre MT raised the temperature 31 degrees in just three minutes. (The Weather Channel) March 6, 1954 Florida received its greatest modern-day snowfall of record, with 4.0 inches at the Milton Experimental Station. Pensacola FL equalled their 24-hour record with 2.1 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel) March 6, 1987 Twenty-eight cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Pickstown SD was the hot spot in the nation with a reading of 83 degrees. The high of 71 at Saint Cloud MN smashed their previous record by 21 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) March 6, 1988 Wintry weather developed in the Rockies and the Plateau Region as arctic air swept in from the northwest. Blizzard conditions in southeast Idaho claimed the lives of two teenagers. Thunderstorms developed in Utah and Idaho. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 6, 1989 A winter storm in the south central U.S. left parts of Missouri and Arkansas buried under more than a foot of snow. Heavier snowfall totals in Missouri included 14 inches at Springfield and 16 inches at Lebanon. Totals in Benton County AR ranged up to 14 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 6, 1990 Colorado's strongest winter storm of the season moved northeastward across the state producing 50 inches of snow at Echo Lake, 46.5 inches on Buckhorn Mountain, and 46 inches near the top of Coal Canyon. Snow fell at the rate of several inches per hour during the height of the storm, while winds gusted above 50 mph. Several hundred rush hour commuters, including the state governor, were stranded in blizzard conditions along Highway 36 between Denver and Boulder. Drifts up to twelve feet high had to be cleared southeast of Boulder. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 6, 1996 An F-1 tornado destroyed a mobile home and a barn and did extensive damage to 20 other houses and barns in Thomaston (Upson County). Damage was reported at the airport as well. Numerous trees were snapped or uprooted and power lines were downed. The tornado touched down in three locations with a total path length of 1/2 mile and a width varying from 75 to 200 yards. (NWS Atlanta) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

Snow on the peaks in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. View from Look Rock on March 5, 2019. March 5, 1960 Eastern Massachusetts greatest March snowstorm of record began to abate. The storm produced record 24 hour snowfall totals of 27.2 inches at Blue Hill Observatory, 17.7 inches at Worcester, and 16.6 inches at Boston. Winds gusted to 70 mph. (3rd-5th) (The Weather Channel) March 5, 1962 A tremendous storm raged along the Atlantic coast. The great Atlantic storm caused more than 200 million dollars property damage from Florida to New England. Winds along the Middle Atlantic Coast reached 70 mph raising forty foot waves, and as much as 33 inches of snow blanketed the mountains of Virginia. The Virginia shoreline was rearranged by historic tidal flooding caused by the combination of the long stretch of strong onshore winds and the Spring Tides. (David Ludlum) March 5, 1987 A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy rain and high winds in California. Up to six inches of rain soaked the San Francisco Bay area in 24 hours, and winds gusted to 100 mph at the Wheeler Ridge Pumping Plant near the Tehachapi Mountains. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 5, 1988 While snow blanketed eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, eight cities in North Dakota reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 61 degrees at Bismarck ND was 27 degrees warmer than that at Chanute KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 5, 1989 Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. A strong (F-2) tornado killed one person and injured six others in Heard County GA. A strong (F-3) tornado injured 23 persons and caused more than five million dollars damage around Grantville GA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 5, 1990 Thunderstorms over eastern Colorado, developing ahead of a major storm system, produced up to three inches of small hail around Colorado Springs in the late morning and early afternoon. Strong thunderstorms swept through southeastern sections of the Denver area during the evening hours. These strong thunderstorms also produced up to three inches of small hail, along with wind gusts to 50 mph, and as much as 2.4 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 5, 2013 An EF-1 tornado occurred in Glascock County. The worst of the damage occurred at the Magnolia Baptist Church where up to 60 percent of the roof was ripped off the main brick sanctuary. The roof was completely torn off the fellowship hall on the west side of the church and most of the four brick walls collapsed. Numerous tombstones and other structures at the cemetery near the church were also damaged. For more information, visit the event summary. (NWS Atlanta) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

March 4, 1909 Though fair weather was forecast, President Taft was inaugurated amidst a furious storm. About ten inches of wet snow disrupted travel and communications. The storm drew much criticism against the U.S. Weather Bureau. (David Ludlum) March 4, 1953 Snow was reported on the island of Oahu in Hawaii. (The Weather Channel) March 4, 1966 A severe blizzard raged across Minnesota and North Dakota. The blizzard lasted four days producing up to 35 inches of snow, and wind gusting to 100 mph produced snow drifts 30 to 40 feet high. Bismarck ND reported zero visibility for 11 hours. Traffic was paralyzed for three days. (2nd-5th) (The Weather Channel) March 4, 1987 Rain and high winds prevailed in the northwestern U.S. A wind gust to 69 mph at Klamath Falls OR was their highest in 25 years, and winds at the Ashland Ranger Station in the Siskiyou Mountains of northern California reached 85 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 4, 1988 Snow and freezing rain made travel hazardous in Ohio and Indiana. A six car pile-up resulted near Columbus OH, with seven injuries reported. Up to two inches of ice glazed central Indiana. Up to ten inches of snow blanketed northern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 4, 1989 Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley. A strong (F-3) tornado injured five persons near Brownsville MS, and killed seven cows and two hogs in one pasture. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 90 mph at Canton MS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 4, 1990 A Pacific cold front working its way across the western U.S. produced heavy snow over parts of Idaho, Nevada and Utah. Up to eleven inches of snow blanketed the valleys of northwest Utah, while 12 to 25 inches fell across the mountains of northern Utah. Up to six inches of snow blanketed the valleys of east central Nevada, while more than a foot of snow was reported in the high elevations. In Idaho, 6 to 8 inches of snow was reported around Aberdeen and American Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 4, 2004 An F0 tornado 2 miles north of Muldrow breaks a record stretch of days without a reported tornado, 292 days. March 4, 2008 Only two days after reaching 78 degrees, St. Louis receives nearly a foot of snow in seven hours, the biggest snowstorm in 15 years. March 4, 2008 A line of severe storms moved across north Georgia during the late afternoon hours producing widespread wind damage and large hail. Wind gusts over 58 MPH were reported from Floyd County eastward to Wilkes County. Trees and powerlines were blown down in this event. In Gwinnett County, a tree was blown down onto a school bus near Lawrenceville. (NWS Atlanta) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

March 3, 1966 A tornado hit Jackson, MS, killing 54 persons. (David Ludlum) March 3, 1980 A coastal storm produced 25 inches of snow at Elizabeth City, NC, and 30 inches at Cape Hatteras NC. At Miami FL the mercury dipped to 32 degrees. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) March 3, 1983 The last of a series of storms to strike the California coast finally came to an end. Waves fifteen to twenty feet high pounded the coast for two days, and in a four day period up to 18 inches of rain drenched the Los Angeles and Santa Barbara area. On the morning of the first, thunderstorms spawned two tornadoes which moved through the Los Angeles area. (Storm Data) March 3, 1987 A storm brought heavy rain and gale force winds to Washington and Oregon. Quillayute WA received 2.67 inches of rain in 24 hours, and winds gusted to 60 mph at Astoria OR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 3, 1988 A small but intense low pressure system roared across west central Mississippi at 90 mph early in the morning. A tornado in southern Mississippi picked up an automobile, carried it 150 feet, and tossed it through the brick wall of an unoccupied retirement home. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 3, 1989 Wintry weather prevailed from the southern Rockies to the Upper Great Lakes. Neguanee MI received 19 inches of snow, and up to 24 inches of snow blanketed Colorado. Blizzard conditions were reported in Minnesota. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 3, 1990 An upper level weather disturbance produced snow in the Colorado Rockies, with eight inches reported at Winter Park, and a storm moving off the Pacific Ocean began to spread rain and snow across the western U.S. March continued to start off like a lamb elsewhere around the country. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 3, 2001 Heavy rain and thunderstorms persisted across the west central Georgia area throughout the afternoon and early evening forcing creeks and rivers out of their banks and flooding roads in many areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches were common throughout the region. The Chattahoochee River Walk in Columbus was flooded as the Chattahoochee River rose to 28 feet, which is within 6 feet of flood stage (flood stage is 34 feet). In Americus in Sumter County, several homes were flooded and some roads were blocked as water became so deep that cars could not pass safely. (NWS Atlanta) March 3, 2003 It was a day of temperature extremes. Miami reached a high temperature of 90 degrees, the earliest observed 90 degree temperature since March 5, 1964. Meanwhile Marquette, MI, dropped to 30 degrees below zero, the lowest temperature ever recorded in the city in March. Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

March 2, 1846 A great storm hit Virginia and the Carolinas. The storm caused half a million dollars damage, and in North Carolina drowned fifty families and a thousand cattle on Notts Island. (David Ludlum) March 2, 1927 Raleigh, NC, was buried under 17.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for that location. Nashville NC received 31 inches of snow. The average snow depth in the state of Carolina was fourteen inches. (The Weather Channel) March 2, 1975 The governor's Tornado in Atlanta did considerable damage to the governor's mansion and surrounding areas resulting in three deaths and 56.5 million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) March 2, 1985 A massive winter storm struck the Northern Plains Region. The storm produced up to 33 inches of snow in northeastern South Dakota, at Summit and at Milbank, and also produced high winds which whipped the heavy snow into drifts twenty feet high. (Storm Data) March 2, 1987 A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced heavy snow in Maine, with 16 inches reported at West Grand Lake and Guilford. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 2, 1988 Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. A tornado at Baton Rouge LA injured two persons, and another tornado caused five million dollars damage at the airport in Lafayette LA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 2, 1989 Snow and high winds plagued the western U.S. Up to 16 inches of snow was reported south of Seattle WA, and more than two feet of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada Range of California. Winds gusted to 89 mph at Hidden Peak UT, and reached 92 mph at Peavine CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 2, 1990 Mild weather continued across the northern tier of states. Highs of 52 degrees at Saint Johnsbury VT, 63 degrees at Olympia WA, and 64 degrees at Seattle WA were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) March 2, 2012 A strong 'April-like' storm system moved across the southeast United States. A strong cold front moved into north Georgia Friday evening, March 2, and continued into central Georgia early Saturday morning, March 3. The strongest tornado in the event was an EF-3 tornado which touched down in Haralson County and moved into Paulding County. Some of the worst damage was along Bethlehem Church Road in Haralson County where a repair shop was destroyed and a house collapsed, injuring a person inside. In Paulding County the hardest hit area was near the Paulding County Airport. Three to four planes were flipped and a jet and hanger were destroyed. (NWS Atlanta) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

March 1, 1910 The deadliest avalanche of record in the U.S. thundered down the mountains near Wellington Station WA sweeping three huge locomotive train engines and some passenger cars, snowbound on the grade leading to Stevens Pass, over the side and into a canyon, and burying them under tons of snow. The avalanche claimed the lives of more than 100 people. The station house at Wellington was also swept away. (The Weather Channel) March 1, 1914 High winds and heavy snow crippled New Jersey and New York State. Two feet of snow were reported at Ashbury Park, and at New York City the barometric pressure dropped to a record 28.38 inches. The storm caused complete disruption of electric power in New Jersey. (David Ludlum) March 1, 1960 A severe ice storm hit the northern half of Georgia. A combination of freezing rain, sleet and snow accumulated from 1 to 4 inches. Damage occurred throughout the area with the heaviest damage in the mountain counties. Some towns and communities in the mountains were completely isolated as all electricity and telephone service went down. Hundreds of broiler houses collapsed under the weight of the ice. Thousands of acres of trees were either damaged or destroyed. The cold that followed created even further hardship as thousands of homes were without power and heat for 1 to 5 days. Three deaths in the Atlanta area resulted indirectly from the storm. (NWS Atlanta) March 1, 1980 Norfolk, VA, received 13.7 inches of snow to push their season total to a record 41.9 inches exceeding their previous record by more than four inches. (David Ludlum) March 1, 1980 An unusually large Florida tornado, 500 yards in width at times, killed one person and caused six million dollars damage near Fort Lauderdale. (The Weather Channel) March 1, 1983 A ferocious storm battered the Pacific coast. The storm produced heavy rain and gale force winds resulting in flooding and beach erosion, and in the mountains produced up to seven feet of snow in five days. (The Weather Channel) March 1, 1987 A storm crossing the Great Lakes Region produced heavy snow and gale force winds from Wisconsin to northern New England, with eight inches of snow reported at Ironwood MI. (The National Weather Summary) March 1, 1988 Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in north central Texas. Baseball size hail was reported at Lake Kickapoo. Hail fell continuously for thirty minutes in the Iowa Park area of Wichita Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 1, 1989 March came in like a lion, with snow and high winds, in the northwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 86 mph in the Rosario Strait of western Washington State. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 1, 1990 A series of low pressure systems moving out of the Gulf of Alaska spread high winds and heavy snow across western Alaska. Winds in the Anchorage area gusted to 69 mph at Glen Alps, and Talkeetna was buried under three feet of snow in two days. Valdez received 21.4 inches of snow, raising their total for the winter season to 482.4 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) March 1, 2006 Dallas/Forth Worth Airport breaks a 107-year-old North Texas temperature record after reaching 93 degrees. Mineral Wells reached 97, Wichita Falls 96 and Fort Worth Meacham Airport 90. March 1, 2007 A total of 14 tornadoes affecting 17 counties tracked across central Georgia during the late afternoon and evening hours of March 1st. This was the third greatest number of tornadoes recorded to have occurred in the Peachtree City, Georgia forecast area within a 24-hour period. (NWS Atlanta) March 1, 2011 Snowfall across Idaho broke numerous accumulation records. Pierce received 15 inches, Powell 14.5 inches, Potlatch 12 inches and Kellogg and Plummer 7 inches. The same storm created high winds across the Pacific Northwest. A weather station at 10,000 feet on Mount Ranier measures a wind gust of 137 MPH with a sustained 1-minute wind reading of 112 MPH. Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article

February 27, 1717 What was perhaps the greatest snow in New England history commenced on this date. During a ten day period a series of four snowstorms dumped three feet of snow upon Boston, and the city was snowbound for two weeks. Up to six feet of snow was reported farther to the north, and drifts covered many one story homes. (David Ludlum) February 27, 1969 A record snowstorm in Maine came to an end. Two to four feet of snow buried southern and central Maine, with a state record of 57 inches reported at West Forks. Drifts covered many single story homes, and the weight of the snow collapsed many roofs. Two to four feet of snow also buried northeastern Vermont and northeastern Massachusetts. In New Hampshire, Mount Washington NH reported 97.8 inches of snow, a record storm total for New England. (24th-28th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) February 27, 198 A storm spread heavy snow into the Central High Plains Region, and produced severe thunderstorms in the Southern Plains. Snowfall totals in western Nebraska ranged up to 19 inches at Sydney. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced baseball size hail at Stringtown and Atoka. A storm in the eastern U.S. produced heavy rain over the Carolinas and heavy snow in the southern Appalachians and piedmont region. Five inches of rain left four feet of water in the streets of Greenville SC. Snowfall totals in southwestern Virginia ranged up to 20 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) February 27, 1988 Thunderstorms along a cold front produced heavy rain in southern California, with up to 2.52 inches reported in Ventura County. Strong winds accompanying the rain gusted to 55 mph in the Tehachapi Mountains. Rapid City SD established a February record with an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) February 27, 1989 Rain and snow prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Up to eight inches of snow blanketed north central Tennessee, and snowfall totals in western North Carolina ranged up to 14 inches at Mount Mitchell. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) February 27, 1990 A winter storm produced heavy snow in southeastern Colorado, with 12 inches reported at Lamar. The same storm produced severe thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains, with wind gusts to 93 mph reported at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Low pressure brought high winds to the Prince William Sound area of Alaska. Big River Lakes reported wind gusts to 92 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) February 27, 2010 A weak EF0 tornado causes no damage as it moved across California's southern San Joaquin Valley. However it is the only tornado reported in the United States during the month. According to the Storm Prediction Center only five months since 1950 have lacked a tornado report. The Weather Doctor View the full article