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KingOfTheMountains

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Everything posted by KingOfTheMountains

  1. Best run of the GFS yet for the NE corner. Looks to change to all snow sometime between 10am and 1pm which is right in time for the heart of the storm. Mid level temps look good from then on. It has the surface around 34 but experience tells me that if heavy snow is falling it will probably be just a bit closer to freezing. Regardless I've seen plenty of nice accumulating snows at 34 degrees. Even better because the roads aren't dangerous.
  2. 3km looks a little better with mid level temps than 12km. Northern tier of counties are right on the dividing line right now. Could go either way. Still hoping to see the NAM relax a little over the next few cycles which might help us with the warm nose.
  3. Good stuff! They knocked Tigers high forecast down from 44 to 37 on that update. Still only 0.1 snow accumulation on the grids though lol. Not that I disagree at this venture necessarily. Still a frustratingly undecided forecast at the moment.
  4. Obviously there are some trends on models like the GFS and NAM that are not great for us right now. But, I feel like they may be over amplifying the storm right now causing for increased warm air advection in the mid-levels. Meeting somewhere in the middle between them and the weakest models seems like a safe bet for now, which could actually be better for us despite less moisture.
  5. Definitely the NAM but none of them did particularly well outside 36 hours or so.
  6. It's odd that Cantore says that about the HP placement when that's actually prime climo placement for non-CAD storms. I think the reason for borderline thermals is more likely due to more lackluster source cold than usual because of the vortex being so locked up. A nearly 1050 HP over the plains should be plenty most of the time.
  7. Yeah NAM is getting really close to fringing us out due to upper level warm nose. But at the same time, it is likely over amped and thus too strong with the warm nose.
  8. Yeah it's definitely still far from settled. I'd put ours and Towns (maybe Union?) county's odds at seeing snowfall now in the 40-50% range. The next tier of counties(Stephens, Habersham, White, Lumpkin, etc) I'd say around 20-30%. These odds could go up or down dramatically as we start moving into better Hi-Res data territory tomorrow.
  9. Well Glenn said just 2 days ago that literally every model he saw said it was gonna be dry cloudy and windy across the SE lol. It was an outright lie hoping suppression would win out and he'd end up right in the end.
  10. Increasingly confident in some undetermined amount of snow falling at least over the very northeastern corner of the state.
  11. Yeah I think at this point it's becoming more likely that this is a borderline event as far as thermals go. Which means that the mountains are the only areas that are favored to see accumulating snow. There are still things that can happen to expand that to other areas but it is less likely at this point. Long ways to go still unfortunately.
  12. I can't wait til we get into range of all the higher resolution guidance and maybe get a better feel for this. Even in a normal setup we're moving into a range where the globals are becoming less and less useful. In this setup they could quite literally be too course to pick up on a potentially very narrow band of frontogenesis.
  13. Looks like every single member of GEFS has at least an inch in the NE corner.
  14. If the coastal develops then it's possible. But for now I think we should stay focused on the over running portion on Thursday since not all models are onboard with the coastal idea yet.
  15. Big increase in snow mean on GEFS. It has Rabun and Towns 850 temp below freezing by 7 pm Wednesday night.
  16. Right now it's precip moving in after sunrise to 10 AM Thursday and then varying times on potential changeover there afterward depending on location and elevation. But again details like timing, R/S lines, precip amounts are very far from being determined. Still an extremely uncertain forecast. Climatology says borderline temp events favor the mountain counties.
  17. Borderline right now. Could go either way. NAM and GFS have that area being right on the rain/snow line for the majority of the event. Verbatim it's showing a situation where northern Lumpkin would be mostly snow, southern Lumpkin mostly rain, and a sloppy wintry mix in between. But we're nowhere near ready for that level of detail yet, that line is gonna move all over the place over the next couple days.
  18. GFS is actually a little colder at onset than the NAM. 35 in Clayton, and soundings indicate all snow despite some of the ptype maps showing a change to rain. If these temps verify, we just need QPF. Even GFS isn't bad with probably an inch or so in accumulation.
  19. And I'm only treating the coastal as a potential bonus. All I'm looking for is better QPF during the over running portion of the event. Which, according to the experts, the globals almost always underestimate QPF on the northern fringe during. If not for that fact I wouldn't feel very good about the setup.
  20. Oh no doubt. Only reason I'm even entertaining it at this lead time is because of how well it did a little over a week ago.
  21. Yeah if that were to happen verbatim we would probably be on the light fringes of the coastal storm bombing out. Very light QPF but potentially very high ratios. Nearly a perfect run for our area. Slightly colder onset, and the coastal development being a little closer to the coast is the only improvements we could possibly have over that. Unfortunately it's days away and almost certain to change lol
  22. Yeah, I pulled up some soundings for that area too just to check and it is definitely mostly rain unfortunately. The unfortunate truth to our climatology that snow most often favors the further north and higher terrain. Might transition to a mix in the latter half of the event. Just one run though, still time for things to change.
  23. This is a sounding for Clayton at onset. This would very quickly transition from rain/wintry mix to all snow, and the surface temp would go below freezing. Would stay snow from then on, possibly even high ratio snow towards the end as the upper air thermals crash.
  24. NWS GSP starting to at least entertain the idea of snow. There now looks to be a brief break in the precip Wednesday night as the first wave of forcing moves east and some drier air moves in. Of course, this sets the stage for the potential for some wintry precip as moisture moves back in Thursday ahead of the surface wave moving along the front and some upper divergence associated with a coupled jet streak. The guidance still doesn`t agree on how far north the moisture moves or just how cold the air will be. That said, it is now looking like there will be precip at least as far north as
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