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KingOfTheMountains

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Everything posted by KingOfTheMountains

  1. I would say slowly increasing likelihood of snow, at least falling, somewhere in the SE US. Where that could be is still highly undecided, and will likely take a while to pin down.
  2. It appears the Canadians recent investments in their model have been well spent. GFS continues to embarrass on the global scale, and now the British are about to put a ton of money into their models as well.
  3. Yep, at least as modeled now, the column is prepped to deliver snow. We just need the moisture to cooperate. As long as the surface isn't any warmer than 38 or so I'd be confident in our area seeing at least a trace of accumulating snow if the moisture is there.
  4. I suspect, much like with our last storm, Euro may be a bit too warm at the surface. I think as far as surface ptype/temps go we are gonna have to wait til hi-res guidance gets into range. While the globals right now can be used on bigger picture stuff like the handling of the vort at H5 and trough alignment.
  5. I think the 12z GFS looks okay if you assume that this statement is mostly true. The upper air column was sufficiently cold over N GA, the GFS just didn't get much precip there to trigger evaporative cooling. I remain convinced that for at least the top row or 2 of counties our biggest concern is getting sufficient moisture transport this far north. I am not convinced that we will, but as Eric points out this is something that the models often underestimate. Note: I am speaking purely for snow falling. Accumulations would be cut down depending on how long that evaporative cooling process
  6. And based on thermal profiles above that is probably a higher than 10:1 snow in places that it can get the surface down to around freezing.
  7. Decent look, but a little late to bloom for us. Actually preferred it's previous run at 12z for us. I'd much prefer the over running event as opposed to a Miller A Coastal type storm. It would need to form further west in the gulf to do us any real good, and in this fast flow positive tilt pattern that is darn near impossible.
  8. A lot. But it is going to be well above freezing everywhere as the precip rolls in. Key is getting a cold enough column above and sufficient precip rates to drive the temp down. Exactly where these things may or may not overlap is going to take quite a while to nail down.
  9. In fact all the click soundings I'm pulling up in Rabun county have a below freezing surface wet bulb also. All we'd need is some sufficient moisture to move in quickly to be in a really good spot.
  10. The column above looks cold enough for snow at least for us at that time. And looking at some Soundings the wet bulb looks below freezing for the entire column except for the surface. So I'd be confident with that look as long as we got sufficient rates we could get the surface down to around freezing, but who knows how much QPF we'd waste doing it. But of course that really is the big question for our area, whether or not we get enough moisture. Now for the rest of N GA, idk. It's a borderline setup. If 850s kept crashing then I'd say there's a good shot at changing over to snow. That's
  11. Honest answer, things haven't really changed much over the last day or so. There was a day of back and forth, and all we did in the end was get back to square one. As hard as predicting snow is in the SE, this one is even harder. It'll be a little while til we can really answer that question one way or the other.
  12. I will say I am very intrigued as to what the NAM will look like as we get better into its range. It really gained some respect from me for how well it forecasted last weekends event from a fairly good lead time.
  13. This is one of the more challenging setups I've seen in a while. This could be a forecast that's not really settled even around 36 hrs out.
  14. It really does which is nice. For now at least, it looks like we will see a brief warmup after the Thursday system and then maybe actually a somewhat extended stretch of below normal temps. Which has kind of been the trend the past few years as we head into March.
  15. Surprisingly though NWS Weather Prediction Center is mostly tossing the Euro suite right now. They are primarily going with a GFS/CMC blend which would definitely mean snow for someone in the SE. Not sure if bet against the EPS at this range but they know a lot more than I do.
  16. Oh yeah, I'm not very confident for our area at all right now. I just think somewhere in the SE may get lucky. I wouldn't take the rain look on the other models verbatim though. Upper air is cold enough it could be snow for those with decent rates, and if they last long enough the surface temp would fall towards freezing. Same thing happened last weekend in places like Athens, Upstate SC, etc.
  17. This is going to be extreme needle threading for somewhere in the SE I believe. NAM and CMC are holding that wave back just a little longer, letting the cold seep in just a bit more. Surface temps are obviously an issue and could end up being a pretty white rain event for some people. Edit: Should note the GEFS is trending in that same direction so it's not exactly just the NAM and Canadian on an island.
  18. I might just be about to unfollow Glenn on Facebook...I've enjoyed his work and respected him over the years but he has not adjusted to the social media age well at all. This post is just as dishonest to his followers as someone saying it's definitely going to snow. All he's gotta do is say, "I've seen the rumors, we're keeping an eye on it, but at this moment it looks unlikely." I'm so glad I live in the GSP counties cause Chris Justus at WYFF in Greenville is one of the best in the business and took over for one of the best to ever do it in John Cessarich. Chris is engaging, honest, and
  19. Yeah with the pattern so progressive and multiple pieces of energy to try and pinpoint, it's no surprise the models are struggling a bit and doing a lot of back and forth. Hi Res modeling may help sort through the mess and see some of the more subtle features that may or may not impact the track of our shortwaves.
  20. Definitely a positive move on the EPS. We'll see if we can actually establish a trend.
  21. I hope we can get it to trend back but I'm certainly not holding my breath. Over running events like this are pretty much my favorite type of Southern snow system. Don't have to deal with those pesky warm noses that we get in the big LP storms, and they almost always over perform. GEFS certainly didn't slam the door, but we're running out of time for big changes. Small adjustments more likely.
  22. It's too fast with the northern stream energy pushing through and clearing things out. There are 2 ways to get what we want. Either the southern stream energy out west needs to quit lagging behind or the northern stream energy needs to slow down/dig further SW. Both ways would help pump heights a bit in the SE and establish our WSW flow off the pacific/gulf. As is right now, by 7 AM Thursday mid-level winds north of Augusta flip WNW and shutoff the moisture transport.
  23. Definitely, and it actually happens quite a bit. Remains to be seen if we can get that lucky this time.
  24. My confidence was never higher than 10-15% anyway because according to the ensembles there were still way too many solutions on the board. My confidence will go up or down based on how things play out as we go forward. To be fair, my confidence wouldn't be any higher than 20-30% even if everything looked perfect right now simply because it's too far out.
  25. Yeah. I spend less time on that site since this one started. Just tend to pop up when there's a threat around.
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