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    • Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will persist over the western U.S. through the middle of the week before slowly shifting east into the Plains around Day 6 or 7/Thu or Fri. Meanwhile, upper troughing will prevail over the eastern CONUS throughout the Day 4-8 period. While a moist airmass typical of summertime will prevail over much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, weak mid/upper flow will likely limit organized severe thunderstorm potential, especially given a lack of any stronger surface cyclogenesis and upper shortwave impulses. Read more View the full article
    • SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON INTO FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NEVADA.... ...Synopsis... The strong upper ridge will remain in place over the Western US Day2 Sunday as a weak upper trough passes along the western periphery. Mid-level moisture will advect inland ahead of the trough, supporting the potential for scattered thunderstorms over much of the Northwest. Low rainfall efficiency is expected with these dry thunderstorms over portions of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. Significant lightning activity is possible within dry fuels D2/Sunday. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period as the upper trough continues northward along the western periphery of the upper ridge. Coverage appears greatest west of the Cascades and toward the Coastal ranges of WA and OR. While these initial storms should slowly diminish in coverage through the morning, at least isolated lightning will remain possible over dry fuels across parts of southern WA and northern OR. A second round of storms is expected to develop by early to mid afternoon as weak ascent from the departing upper trough and orographic lift overlap with diurnal heating. Very warm surface temperatures and continued mid-level moistening will support weak destabilization atop deep and well-mixed sub-cloud layer depths of 2-3 km. 30-40 kt of mid-level southerly flow will also favor moderate storm motions, suggesting very little potential for wetting rainfall. Convection should gradually expand along the higher terrain of the Cascades and northern Great Basin from northern NV/CA into OR and WA through the day. Scattered fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions and gusty/erratic surface winds beneath passing storms. Given the volatile state of area fuels and significant ongoing fire activity, the potential for scattered lightning coverage warrants the introduction of critical Dry T probabilities. ..Lyons.. 07/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
    • SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge will dominate the western US through the forecast period within a relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern. A broad Pacific trough will move onshore to the west of the ridge, bringing isolated thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... To the west of the upper ridge, subtle ascent will gradually overspread portions of the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest ahead of the advancing upper trough. PWAT values are forecast to increase through the day, reaching 0.8 to 1 inches by this evening. Continued moisture advection should allow for gradual mid-level destabilization and dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain by mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms over the northern Great Basin should slowly expand in coverage to the northwest from late in the afternoon and into the overnight period. Enhanced flow aloft will allow for moderate storm motions of 20-25 kt atop relatively dry boundary layer. This will likely support dry thunderstorm potential through the overnight hours despite increasing mid-level moisture. Given the potential for lightning over very receptive fuels (95th percentile ERCs), the ISODRYT area was expanded westward into portions of west/southwest OR. ...Northern Rockies... East of the ridge, confidence in dry storms is lower, as flow aloft will be weaker and deeper monsoonal moisture is expected to be in place. The combination of slower speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions. However, the best storm coverage appears displaced to the east, away from the more receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
    • SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... The overall pattern will not change much on Monday. An upper ridge in the West and trough over the central/eastern U.S. will persist amid weak deep-layer flow. A seasonally moist airmass will remain in place east of the Rockies, supporting widespread thunderstorm activity. Much of this activity will likely remain disorganized given weak vertical shear and a little upper support. Some forecast guidance suggests a weak cold front will develop southward across the Canadian Prairies into ND and the Upper Midwest. However, the timing of this feature is uncertain, and may be ill-timed with the diurnal cycle/better thermodynamic conditions. Vertical shear is forecast to remain weak regardless, and confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at this time. Elsewhere, sporadic strong gusts may accompany thunderstorms across the south-central/southeast states where high PW values will be in place, though this activity should remain mostly disorganized, pulse-type convection. ..Leitman.. 07/20/2024 Read more View the full article
    • No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 20 05:02:02 UTC 2024.View the full article
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