Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 13, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 13, 2023 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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