Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 1 Administrators Share Posted January 1 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southern Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-65 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints) over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough elevated moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the southern Plains. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southern LA. Severe thunderstorms are not expected for this region given generally 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE forecast, even though deep-layer shear should be strong. Farther west, occasional lighting flashes may be noted with low-topped convection moving onshore along/near the northern CA Coast in association with an eastward-moving upper trough, mainly from late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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