Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted April 16 Administrators Share Posted April 16 MD 0464 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL Mesoscale Discussion 0464 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern/central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162040Z - 162215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential may slowly increase over the next few hours into parts of northern and central Illinois. A watch may be needed at some point late this afternoon, but timing remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...A band of storms continues to lift northeast across eastern IA into western IL this afternoon. Much of the convection is somewhat disorganized in a messy storm mode. Downstream into northern/central IL, some modest increase in boundary-layer moisture still may occur as a warm front lifts north. While strong heating has occurred, some weak inhibition remains over parts of the area. Nevertheless, modest boundary-layer moisture beneath midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km are supporting weak instability (MLCAPE 1000 J/kg or less). The initial band of convection moving toward the MCD area may largely remain unproductive. However, as large-scale ascent increasing toward evening, a secondary band of convection may move into the area and post more of a severe risk. Given the somewhat limited thermodynamic environment (despite favorable vertical shear), severe potential may only gradually increase toward evening. The area will be monitored for potential watch issuance, but timing is uncertain. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 42588989 42398864 41868769 41098752 40288757 39768819 39688902 40068964 41318962 42588989 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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