Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 5 Administrators Share Posted June 5 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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