NorthGeorgiaWX

MD 0081 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO...NORTHEAST AR Mesoscale Discussion 0081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Areas affected...Southwest/Central/Eastern OK...Southeast KS...Southwest/South-Central MO...Northeast AR Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 220651Z - 221245Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain, with rates of 0.01" to 0.03" per hour, will continue across much of central and eastern Oklahoma and into the Ozark Plateau for the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show a large area of precipitation from OK into the Ozark Plateau. This area of precipitation, which is a supported by moderate warm-air advection across the southern Plains, is gradually moving eastward/northeastward and is occurring within an area of largely sub-freezing surface temperatures. A more coherent area of precipitation is entering the Ozark Plateau vicinity, where light but steady precipitation should lead to freezing rain rates on the order of 0.01" to 0.03" per hour. This initial area of precipitation is followed by a more banded precipitation structure, which is ongoing over central OK now. Precipitation rates within these bands are likely equivalent to those within the more broad area of precipitation (i.e. around 0.01" to 0.03"), but higher rates are possible if deeper convection is realized within any of these bands. Lightning was recently observed in Cooke County TX, which is indicative of some deeper convective cores and higher precipitation rates. Temperatures across this region are expected to stay below freezing for the next several hours, with temperatures then warming above freezing around 10 to 12Z across south-central and southeast OK. Gradual warming is expected to then expand northeastward over time, ending the threat for freezing rain. ..Mosier.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34309907 35519815 36339726 37409554 37489206 35889252 34139432 33769678 34309907 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 22 at 3:26AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far southwest Louisiana. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana... Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region. Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024 Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 22 05:01:01 UTC 2024.View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will remain in place across the western/central US with continued cool and moist conditions extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will remain in place across the western/central US with continued cool and moist conditions extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

MD 0080 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA Mesoscale Discussion 0080 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 220106Z - 220500Z SUMMARY...Increasing potential for freezing rain with potential for quick ice accumulations. DISCUSSION...A region of light to moderate precipitation is observed moving northeastward into southwestern Oklahoma over the last hour. Surface temperatures are hovering around freezing near the Red River with a drop into the upper 20s moving northeast. With dew points in the teens, further reduction of temperatures through wet-bulb cooling can be expected as the heavier precipitation moves northward. The 00z sounding from OUN shows a pronounced warm nose from 925 mb to around 800 mb with surface temperatures below freezing. Though some dry air remains around 750 mb and near the surface, the profile has moistened. It is noteworthy that hi-res guidance is generally running a little warm over the last 12-24 hours in trends when compared to RTMA. The RAP and HRRR seem to be coming into better alignment with current conditions over the last 3-6 hours. Expectation is for freezing drizzle and rain to increase in coverage over the next few hours across southeastern Oklahoma. Locations that are already below freezing will likely see quick icing, especially across elevated surfaces. Given that ground temperatures are already below freezing, this will likely impact travel with slick conditions developing quickly through the next few hours. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34409839 34739806 35189754 35339717 35429687 35479670 35509649 35529618 35489581 35339562 35099550 34869540 34629538 34369540 34169546 33979576 33869601 33819636 33839667 33869713 33879733 33899783 33989814 34079836 34409839 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 21 at 7:58PM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 21 at 7:58PM EST until January 24 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 21 at 7:58PM EST until January 24 at 10:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Changes are not warranted to the 20z outlook. Isolated thunderstorm threat continues tonight across portions of TX, southeast AZ, and along the CA Coast. The greatest risk for lightning is within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the southern Plains, primarily along the I35 corridor in TX. LLJ will increase across the southern Plains this evening, and increasing PW values atop cool/stable boundary layer will aid buoyancy for elevated convection across this region. Steep lapse rates across southeast AZ may yet allow a few updrafts to generate lightning across this region, but lightning has proven very sparse with this activity. Isolated flashes of lightning may also develop along the CA Coast later tonight in response to a short-wave trough that will approach this region after midnight. ..Darrow.. 01/22/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Changes are not warranted to the 20z outlook. Isolated thunderstorm threat continues tonight across portions of TX, southeast AZ, and along the CA Coast. The greatest risk for lightning is within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the southern Plains, primarily along the I35 corridor in TX. LLJ will increase across the southern Plains this evening, and increasing PW values atop cool/stable boundary layer will aid buoyancy for elevated convection across this region. Steep lapse rates across southeast AZ may yet allow a few updrafts to generate lightning across this region, but lightning has proven very sparse with this activity. Isolated flashes of lightning may also develop along the CA Coast later tonight in response to a short-wave trough that will approach this region after midnight. ..Darrow.. 01/22/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the extended period due to moist fuels and continued wetting rain for 2/3rds of the CONUS. The only region with minimal precipitation will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present and cold temperatures are expected to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the extended period due to moist fuels and continued wetting rain for 2/3rds of the CONUS. The only region with minimal precipitation will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present and cold temperatures are expected to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the extended period due to moist fuels and continued wetting rain for 2/3rds of the CONUS. The only region with minimal precipitation will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present and cold temperatures are expected to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 21 at 3:31PM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Discussion... Overall thunderstorm potential will be fairly limited/confined, with severe thunderstorms not expected across the CONUS. Expansive surface high pressure will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. Low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains into tonight, with a northward transport of higher theta-e air. This will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In the West, multiple low-amplitude disturbances will spread inland and across the West and Southwest deserts through tonight. Pacific moisture and weak instability will support a few thunderstorms, across southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Discussion... Overall thunderstorm potential will be fairly limited/confined, with severe thunderstorms not expected across the CONUS. Expansive surface high pressure will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. Low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains into tonight, with a northward transport of higher theta-e air. This will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In the West, multiple low-amplitude disturbances will spread inland and across the West and Southwest deserts through tonight. Pacific moisture and weak instability will support a few thunderstorms, across southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Discussion... Overall thunderstorm potential will be fairly limited/confined, with severe thunderstorms not expected across the CONUS. Expansive surface high pressure will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. Low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains into tonight, with a northward transport of higher theta-e air. This will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In the West, multiple low-amplitude disturbances will spread inland and across the West and Southwest deserts through tonight. Pacific moisture and weak instability will support a few thunderstorms, across southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Discussion... Overall thunderstorm potential will be fairly limited/confined, with severe thunderstorms not expected across the CONUS. Expansive surface high pressure will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. Low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains into tonight, with a northward transport of higher theta-e air. This will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In the West, multiple low-amplitude disturbances will spread inland and across the West and Southwest deserts through tonight. Pacific moisture and weak instability will support a few thunderstorms, across southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. Read more View the full article